Cambridge United vs Blackpool: match statistics

Cambridge United sit 6th and are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while 15th-placed Blackpool have lost 4 of their last 5. During this period, the hosts scored 10 goals and conceded 6, whereas the visitors scored 8 and conceded as many as 14, pointing to a clear gap in defensive form. At home, Cambridge average 1.75 goals with an xG of 1.64, while Blackpool allow opponents chances worth an xG of 2.40 away from home and concede an average of 2 goals. The visitors could still pose an attacking threat, averaging 1.33 goals away, and Cambridge have yet to keep a clean sheet at home. Even so, the hosts’ advantage in form and the quality of chances they create makes a home win the most likely outcome.

Both teams have scored in each of their last 5 matches, and their season BTTS rates stand at 75% and 100%, respectively, compared with 60% across the league. Cambridge average 2.25 goals at home, while Blackpool concede 2.0 goals per away game and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. The visitors also have a genuine chance of scoring: they average 1.33 goals away from home, while Cambridge concede 1.75 at home. Blackpool have averaged 1.6 goals across their last 5 matches, although their lower away xG of 1.16 calls for some caution. Even so, the consistency of the BTTS results, together with the fact that neither team has yet failed to score in a match, supports the BTTS - Yes pick.

Cambridge’s home matches have averaged 4.0 goals, while Blackpool’s away matches have averaged 3.33, so both profiles point to Over 1.5 goals. Cambridge score an average of 2.25 goals at home, while Blackpool concede 2.0 away; in addition, the hosts’ xG is 1.85, and the visitors’ xG conceded is as high as 2.40. Blackpool could also get on the scoresheet, as Cambridge concede an average of 1.75 goals at home and both teams have scored in each of their last five matches. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of the Cambridge home matches and Blackpool away matches considered, making it the strongest pick. However, with a projected total of 3.50 goals, Over 2.5 also looks appealing.

The strongest HT/FT pick is a draw at half-time followed by a Cambridge United win at full-time, although the hosts leading at the break remains almost equally likely. In their last five matches, both teams failed to score in the first half in 60% of games, while Cambridge led after 45 minutes in only 20%, pointing to a closely contested start. The difference is more pronounced after the break: Cambridge won the second half in 4 of its last 5 matches, while Blackpool lost the second half in 4 of 5 and conceded an average of 2.0 goals in those halves. The hosts also have an advantage in chance quality, with an average xG of 1.85 compared with their opponents’ 1.16, and average 6.5 shots on target per match against Blackpool’s 2.67. A half-time draw is not certain, however, as Cambridge led at the break in 50% of its home matches; the stronger signal is therefore for a home win at full-time than for the exact half-time result.