Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero: match statistics

Cancún has a clear home advantage: they average 1.94 goals scored and concede only 0.69 goals per home match, while CDS Tampico Madero averages 1.06 goals scored and concedes 1.06 on the road. Additionally, Cancún generates more quality chances — at home they record 12.81 shots and 5.19 shots on target per game, versus Tampico’s 9.56 shots and 3.67 on target away; conversion rate is 15% for Cancún versus 11% for Tampico, and average xG is 1.61 vs 1.20. The home defense is also more stable: Cancún has 44% clean sheets at home and only 13% of matches without scoring, whereas Tampico has 28% clean sheets and 28% scoreless matches; home goal difference is +20, while away goal difference for the visitors is 0. Despite this, Tampico is in excellent form — winning 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals in that period and averaging 3 points per game, which increases upset risk. Considering Cancún’s superiority in chance creation and finishing (xG 1.61 vs 1.20, conversion 15% vs 11%) and the better home defense (0.69 conceded vs Tampico’s 1.06 away), I tip the home win; suggested probabilities are 60% for 1, 20% for draw and 20% for 2.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 53% (Cancún) and 61% (Tampico) versus a league average of 56%, which already favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches Cancún records BTTS 80% and Tampico 60%, with goals scored 7 and 9 (1.4 and 1.8 per match) and goals conceded 5 and 3 (1.0 and 0.6 per match), so both sides have recently been regularly scoring and conceding. Over the season Cancún has scored 54 goals and concedes 0.79 goals per match on average (31 conceded), has xG 1.48 and 14.0 shots per match, while Tampico has 52 goals, 34 conceded and a season xG 1.2 with xG against 1.7, which together increases the likelihood of exchanged goals. The counterargument is that Cancún has more clean sheets (37% vs 28%) and Tampico fails to score in 28% of matches versus 16% for Cancún, so there is a risk of one side being shut out. Considering Cancún’s offensive edge in stats (xG, shots) alongside Tampico’s high BTTS and recent form, I assess BTTS at 65% vs 35% and recommend the “BTTS - Yes” selection.

I calculated expected goals by combining xG values: Cancún’s attack (xG 1.48) vs Tampico’s defense (xG against 1.70) yields ~1.59 for the home side, while Tampico’s attack (xG 1.20) vs Cancún’s defense (xG against 0.86) yields ~1.03 for the visitors, totalling ~2.62 goals. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.62, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is ~73.7%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ~48.7%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ~26.8%. Seasonal figures support this: Cancún at home averages 1.74 goals and has 63% of matches Over 1.5, Tampico away has 61% of such matches, and the league average goals is 2.86. The hosts average 14 shots (4.42 on target) versus the visitors’ 9.56 and 3.67, and BTTS occurs in 53% and 61% of cases respectively, which increases the chance of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 and I recommend a bet on the Over line 1.5.

Data analysis indicates a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time. Cancún draws at the break in 53% of matches and keeps a clean sheet in 68% of first halves, which increases the probability of an HT draw. After the break the hosts score on average 1.11 goals versus 0.44 for the visitors, and in 89% of their matches they score at least once after half-time, while winning at home in 74% of fixtures. Cancún’s xG is 1.54 versus 1.20 for the away side, whereas the visitors concede an average xG against of 1.70, suggesting greater vulnerability in their defense to conceding. For these reasons the strongest signal is X/1 (draw at Half-Time and a home turnaround to win Full-Time).