Cancún vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Cancún vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cancún played Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 29 March 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Cancún: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cancún scores 1.62 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.34 and concedes 0.90. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cancún 50%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 48%. Over 2.5: Cancún 46%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 38%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.42. Cancún: 11.6 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 13.8.
Match halves
Cancún: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.77. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.66.
Goals by minute
Cancún: 16-30 (8 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cancún show clear home superiority — 2.00 goals scored and only 0.62 GA per match, 54% wins and 46% CS. Their xG for (1.72) and high shot efficiency (15%) on 13.77 attempts per game indicate an effective attack. Tepatitlán perform worse away: 1.14 goals, 43% FTS and just 21% away wins. Despite decent recent form (PPG 1.8) and xG for 1.54, visitors have lower conversion (9%) and higher draw tendency. Considering hosts' defensive solidity and home edge, I predict a Cancún win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS-leaning signal: league BTTS 55%, season BTTS Cancún 47%, Tepatitlán 50%. Both present solid xG (1.74 vs 1.54) and similar shot profiles, indicating ability to create chances. Crucially Cancún L5 BTTS 100% and Tepatitlán regularly scores and concedes. xG against (1.23/1.43) shows defences are not airtight, boosting BTTS probability. Recommendation: BTTS = Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and stats indicate elevated goal potential: home xG 1.74 and away 1.54 with relatively weak opponent defenses yield expected ~1.59 and ~1.39 goals. Season and recent form show frequent 2+ goal matches (high over0.5 and over1.5 at home, solid BTTS). Shot volumes and conversion rates indicate both sides create chances. With combined xG ~2.98, the 1.5 line is the strongest hit signal; 2.5 and 3.5 lines have moderate and low probabilities respectively. CS% and recent results included do not negate high probability of at least two goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Cancún have a clear home advantage (higher PPG, win rate and avg xG) and better first-half scoring stats, suggesting a Half-Time lead. Hosts frequently score in HT (high seasonOver05PercentageHT_home) and have solid HT points, while Tepatitlán are weaker away and win less on the road. Low BTTS HT and a high share of matches with hosts leading at the break raise probability of 1/1. Draws or host comebacks after HT draws (X/1, X/X) are possible, hence moderate chances for those scenarios. Scenarios where visitors lead at Half-Time are unlikely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cancún | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Cancún · 1.8 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cancún is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.62 goals / match - Cancún · 1.34 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Cancún scores in 81% of matches (21 of 26 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 34% (10 of 29 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 69% of matches (20 of 29 matches), while Cancún keeps a clean sheet in 38% (10 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cancún
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cancún is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.85 pts / match - Cancún · 1.41 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cancún - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +6 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cancún
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Cancún | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.24 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 53% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 26% | ▲ 34% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 74% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 79% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Cancún 1 - 0 - 0 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cancún vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Cancún 2:2 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Cancún vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Cancún score 1.62 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.34. The Ascenso MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Cancún's matches and 48% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Cancún and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Cancún have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cancún vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.