Caracas vs Rayo Zuliano: match statistics

Caracas at home averages 14.33 shots per match of which 4.5 are on target, while Rayo Zuliano away records only 9.17 shots and 2.5 on target. This translates to average xG of 1.52 for Caracas versus 0.93 for Rayo Zuliano and an average goals of 1.33 versus 1.00, giving a clear advantage in the quality of chances for the hosts. Defensively the visitors concede on average 2.00 goals away, hosts 1.50 at home, and Rayo has no clean sheets on the road and fails to score in 50% of away matches, whereas Caracas fails to score in only 17% of home games. In the last 5 matches Caracas has a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded and an average of 1.6 points per game, while Rayo has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses with 4 scored and 6 conceded and only 1.0 point per game. Based on this I predict a home win, assigning it a 65% probability, a draw 20% and an away win 15%.

Caracas averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.5 per match this season, while Rayo Zuliano averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 2.0, indicating vulnerability to conceding for both sides. In the last 5 fixtures xG is 1.41 for Caracas versus 1.23 for Rayo, with xG against at 1.77 (Caracas) and 1.54 (Rayo), so both teams create and allow goal-scoring opportunities. Rayo has not kept a single clean sheet this season (0% clean sheets), and Caracas has only 17% of matches without conceding; season BTTS rate for both teams is 50% each, while league-wide BTTS occurs in 52% of matches. Shot statistics are similar (9.5 vs 9.17 shots and 2.83 vs 2.5 shots on target) with equal conversion at 11%, meaning both sides have a real ability to finish chances. Given Rayo’s zero percent clean sheets, Caracas’s 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, and balanced xG and shot figures, I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% and 35% for No.

Both teams average 1.0 goal each (Caracas 1.0, Rayo 1.0), with xG for 1.08 for Caracas and 0.93 for Rayo, totaling xG 2.01. In the last 5 matches combined xG rose to 2.64 (1.41 + 1.23), and goals scored in the last 5 are 5 and 4 respectively (averages 1.0 and 0.8), with goals conceded 5 and 6 (1.0 and 1.2), which indicates more goal-scoring opportunities. Season-to-date the percentage of matches over 1.5 is 50% for the home side and 83% for the away side, and both teams scored in 50% of games, which further supports at least two goals. Based on expected goals of 1.25 for Caracas and 0.95 for Rayo (total ~2.20), a Poisson model yields about a 65% probability for Over 1.5 and ~38% for Over 2.5. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (selection: over, line 1.5).

At half-time I favor the home side, as Caracas scores an average of 0.83 goals by the break versus Rayo’s 0.17, which in a simple model yields roughly a 50% chance of the home team holding a lead at the break. Additionally, Caracas led at half-time in 33% of matches while Rayo never did (0%); in the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% of games but were behind in 50%, which increases the risk of a draw at half-time. For the full match the case for Caracas is supported by superior xG (1.08 vs 0.93) and a lower average of goals conceded (1.5 vs 2.0), and over the last five fixtures the hosts average 1.6 points per game versus 1.0 for the visitors, hence a higher probability of a home win. It should be noted, however, that Rayo are dangerous after the break (averaging 2.0 second-half goals and scoring in 100% of matches after half-time), so scenarios involving equalizing or a turnaround have a noticeable, but smaller, likelihood.