Cardiff MU vs Trefelin: match statistics

Cardiff MU have won 6 of their 12 matches this season, while Trefelin are still waiting for their first victory, with a record of 3 draws and 9 defeats. At home, Cardiff average 2.33 goals per match, whereas Trefelin score just 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per away game. Cardiff’s edge in chance creation is reflected in their average home xG of 1.57, compared with Trefelin’s away xG of 0.89, as well as 5.83 shots on target per match against 2.5. In their last five matches, Cardiff have collected 8 points and conceded 4 goals, while Trefelin have earned just 1 point and conceded 12. Although Cardiff concede an average of 1.67 goals at home, Trefelin’s poor scoring record and four defeats in their last five matches strongly point towards a Cardiff win.

BTTS - No is more likely, primarily due to Trefelin’s poor finishing: the visitors average 0.5 goals in away matches and have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 games. Cardiff MU also struggle to score at home, averaging 0.33 goals, and failed to find the net in 67% of such matches. Weak defenses, conceding an average of 2.5 goals in their respective home and away matches, increase the chances of either team breaking through, so BTTS - Yes remains a realistic scenario. Even so, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 games, and the low goal output—especially from the visitors—points to at least one side failing to score.

At least 2 goals were scored in 83% of Cardiff MU matches and 100% of Trefelin matches, making Over 1.5 the best-supported line based on results to date. Both teams concede an average of 2.5 goals per match and neither has kept a clean sheet, increasing the likelihood of this line being reached even if their attacking efficiency is poor. Caution on higher lines is warranted, as Cardiff average 0.33 goals scored and Trefelin 0.5; in their last 5 matches, the visitors scored just 0.4 goals per game. Cardiff could, however, exploit an opposing defence that conceded an average of 2.4 goals and allowed chances worth 2.32 xG in its last 5 matches. A forecast of 2.45 total goals supports Over 1.5, but does not provide equally strong grounds for backing Over 2.5.

In Cardiff’s last five matches, they were level at half-time in 60% of games and conceded an average of just 0.2 goals in the first half, making a draw at the break the most likely starting point. Trefelin, however, trailed at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, so a home lead at the break remains a significant alternative. After the interval, the advantage shifts to Cardiff: they scored an average of 0.8 goals in the second half, while Trefelin conceded 1.2. The hosts earned an average of 1.6 points per game across their last five matches, compared with 0.2 for the visitors, strengthening the prediction of a home win at full-time. Although Cardiff’s season average is only 0.33 goals scored per match, that figure has risen to 1.0 over their last five games, so I favour the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time.