Carina Gubin vs Barycz Sułów: match statistics

Barycz Sułów are showing clearly superior current form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, with 3 wins, a draw and just one defeat, while Carina Gubin have managed only 4 points. The visitors have scored 10 goals during this period, compared with just 4 for the hosts, while Carina have conceded as many as 12 goals—an average of 2.4 per match. Barycz’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average away xG stands at 1.97, compared with Carina’s 1.34 at home, while the visitors average 17 shots per match against 14.5 for the hosts. Carina have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match and allow opponents an xG of 2.26, which creates favorable conditions for an effective performance from the Sułów side. Although Barycz also concede an average of 2 goals away from home, their superior form and greater attacking potential point to an away win.

Carina Gubin kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches this season and concede just 0.67 goals per home game, which significantly limits Barycz Sułów’s chances of scoring. The visitors failed to score in 50% of their matches, while their conversion rate stands at just 6%, despite averaging 1.97 xG and 5.5 shots on target. Carina’s season BTTS rate is only 33%, compared with 50% for Barycz and 56% across the league. However, Carina’s recent form has been weaker, as they have conceded 2.4 goals per game across their last five matches, while scoring only 0.8 goals per game. The most likely outcome therefore remains BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score, although the visitors’ attacking potential increases the risk of BTTS.

Barycz Sułów are in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Carina Gubin conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game during this period. The visitors’ attacking potential is also supported by an average xG of 1.77 across their last five outings, whereas the xG allowed by the hosts is as high as 2.28. For both teams, 4 of their last 5 matches ended with at least three goals, meaning 80% of these games went Over the 2.5 line. Carina’s season average of just 0.67 goals conceded may look solid, but their current defensive performance is clearly below that level, while the hosts’ attack can take advantage of the 2.0 goals Barycz concede on average this season. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 2.95 goals provides a significantly larger safety margin than higher lines.

Barycz Sułów are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Carina have won just 1 game, scoring 0.8 goals and allowing opponents 2.4. The visitors are also creating more chances, averaging 1.97 xG and 5.5 shots on target, compared with the hosts’ 1.36 xG and 4.0 shots on target. In their last five appearances, Carina have failed to score before half-time, while Barycz have held a lead at the break in 40% of their matches, strengthening the scenario of the visitors taking the upper hand in the first half. After the break, the hosts have recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals, whereas the visitors have scored 1.4, making it most likely that Barycz will maintain their lead until the final whistle.