Carina Gubin vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra: match statistics

Carina Gubin have home advantage: they won their only home match so far, averaging 2 goals and 16 shots, 7 of them on target. The hosts have also been effective recently, scoring 9 goals in their last five matches and winning 3 of them. Karkonosze Jelenia Góra have shown slightly better points form across their last five games, averaging 2 points per match compared with Carina’s 1.8, and they have also kept clean sheets in both of their fixtures so far. At the same time, the visitors have scored only 6 goals in their last five appearances, while Carina averaged 1.8 goals per game over the same period. The lack of data from Karkonosze’s away matches limits confidence in the prediction, but Carina’s attacking activity and efficiency at home slightly favour a home win.

The strongest signal is Karkonosze’s very poor away record: they average 0.0 goals scored, while their season-long rate of matches in which they have scored stands at 0%. Carina have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, clearly increasing the risk that the visitors will fail to score again. Karkonosze have improved to 1.2 goals per match over their last five games, yet BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures, compared with 60% for the hosts. Carina scored 1.8 goals per game during this period, while Karkonosze allowed opponents an xG of 1.57, making a home goal without a required response from the visitors the most realistic scenario. Although the league BTTS average is 61%, both teams’ zero season BTTS figures, along with Carina’s defensive profile, support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

In their last five matches, Carina averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, resulting in a total of 2.8 goals per game. Over the same period, Karkonosze scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.0, with their matches averaging 2.2 goals. The hosts had 80% of their matches finish Over 2.5 goals, while the corresponding figure for the visitors is only 40%, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. In addition, the visitors’ xG from their last five matches stands at 1.02, whereas Carina allowed opponents just 0.66 xG per match. The projected total of 2.35 goals remains clearly below the 3.5 line, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Carina win, as the hosts were level at the break in 67% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Karkonosze. Carina failed to score before half-time during this period and conceded an average of 0.67 goals, but after the interval they scored an average of 1.33 goals while conceding just 0.67. The Gubin-based side also have better attacking output over their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals compared with the visitors’ 1.2. Karkonosze are dangerous early on, having led at the break in 40% of their recent matches without conceding a goal before half-time, so the draw/away win scenario remains a significant alternative; however, Carina’s superiority after the break supports X/1.