Carina Gubin vs Odra Bytom Odrzański: match statistics

Odra Bytom Odrzański have a clearly superior season record: they have won 5 of 7 matches and conceded only 3 goals, while Carina Gubin have suffered 5 defeats in 7 games and have a 5:15 goal difference. The hosts are in very poor form, scoring just 2 goals in their last five matches, losing four times and averaging only 0.2 points per game. At home, Carina concede an average of 1.75 goals, have kept no clean sheets, and their opponents create chances worth an average of 2.26 xG against them. Odra are still unbeaten away from home, have won 2 of 3 matches and kept a clean sheet in all of them, although their average of 0.67 goals scored away increases the risk of a tight, low-scoring encounter. The visitors’ stronger recent run, including 3 wins in their last 5 league matches, combined with their highly solid defence, points towards an Odra victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Odra Bytom Odrzański’s defensive record: the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches, while conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 fixtures. Carina Gubin are currently highly inefficient in attack, having scored just 2 goals in their last five appearances—an average of 0.4 per match—and failed to score in 25% of their season games. Historical BTTS figures are also low: 25% for the home side and 0% for the visitors, compared with a league average of 52%. Odra have a realistic chance of scoring against a Carina defence that has recently conceded 2.4 goals per game, but it is more likely that the hosts will fail to reply with a goal. Although Carina’s xG over their last five matches stands at 1.21, the visitors’ solid defensive organisation clearly strengthens the scenario in which at least one team ends the match without scoring.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5, as Odra have not conceded a goal away from home and have finished below 2.5 and 3.5 goals in 100% of such matches. Carina have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while their current xG stands at 1.21. The visitors are in better defensive form, conceding an average of 0.6 goals in their last 5 outings, whereas Carina have allowed opponents as many as 2.4 goals per match. Odra may take advantage of the hosts’ weaker defence, as their xG over the last five matches is 1.63, although their average goals scored during this period is only 1.0. The projected total of 2.20 goals points to realistic scorelines of 0:1, 1:1 or 0:2, making Under 3.5 clearly the safer option.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and an Odra victory at the final whistle, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Carina were trailing at that stage in 3 of 5. Current form clearly favours the away side: Odra collected 10 points from five matches and won 60% of them, whereas Carina managed just 1 point, losing 80% of their games. Over this period, the hosts scored only 0.4 goals per match and conceded 2.4, while Odra averaged 1.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded. In the first halves, the visitors conceded an average of 0.4 goals, while Carina scored only 0.2, increasing the likelihood of a cautious, level start. After the break, Odra have not lost any of their last five second-half periods, while Carina lost the second half in 60% of cases; therefore, the visitors’ advantage should become most apparent towards the end.