Carlisle United vs Southend United: match statistics
Carlisle United displays impressive home form with a 67% win rate and an average of 2.17 goals per match at home, making them the clear favorite for this meeting. The hosts are in 3rd place in the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals. Southend United, despite a solid position (8th place) and good away efficiency (41% wins), lags behind the hosts in key offensive parameters - averaging 1.53 goals per away match compared to Carlisle's 2.17 at home. The hosts' goal difference in home games (+19) significantly exceeds Southend's away figure (+7), and higher xG values (2.07 vs 1.61) confirm Carlisle's qualitative advantage. Statistics point to a home advantage, although the guests' solid defense (35% clean sheets on the road) and their recent form (2.0 PPG) could turn this into a closely contested match with chances for a draw.
Carlisle United vs Southend United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Carlisle United played Southend United in National League (England). The match was played on 7 March 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Carlisle United: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Southend United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Carlisle United scores 1.83 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Southend United scores 1.66 and concedes 0.94. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Carlisle United 51%, Southend United 50%. Over 2.5: Carlisle United 60%, Southend United 50%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Southend United has higher xG: 1.87 vs 1.83. Carlisle United: 14.5 shots per match, Southend United: 15.7.
Match halves
Carlisle United: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.97. Southend United: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.06.
Goals by minute
Carlisle United: 16-30 (14 goals). Southend United: 76-90+ (20 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Carlisle United displays impressive home form with a 67% win rate and an average of 2.17 goals per match at home, making them the clear favorite for this meeting. The hosts are in 3rd place in the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals. Southend United, despite a solid position (8th place) and good away efficiency (41% wins), lags behind the hosts in key offensive parameters - averaging 1.53 goals per away match compared to Carlisle's 2.17 at home. The hosts' goal difference in home games (+19) significantly exceeds Southend's away figure (+7), and higher xG values (2.07 vs 1.61) confirm Carlisle's qualitative advantage. Statistics point to a home advantage, although the guests' solid defense (35% clean sheets on the road) and their recent form (2.0 PPG) could turn this into a closely contested match with chances for a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Carlisle United | Southend United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carlisle United is 71% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Carlisle United · 1.4 pts / match - Southend United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carlisle United is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.83 goals / match - Carlisle United · 1.66 goals / match - Southend United
Southend United is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Carlisle United · 0.94 goals / match - Southend United
Carlisle United scores in 86% of matches (30 of 35 matches), while Southend United keeps a clean sheet in 41% (13 of 32 matches).
Southend United scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 34% (12 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Carlisle United
Over / Under - Southend United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Southend United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Carlisle United
Southend United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Carlisle United | Liga | Southend United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.03 | 2.93 | ▼ 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 51% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 34% | 24% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 72% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 81% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Carlisle United 1 - 0 - 0 Southend United. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Carlisle United vs Southend United?
The National League match finished Carlisle United 2:2 Southend United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Carlisle United vs Southend United?
Carlisle United score 1.83 goals per game on average and Southend United 1.66. The National League average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 51% of Carlisle United's matches and 50% of Southend United's.
What form are Carlisle United and Southend United in?
Over the last 5 games Carlisle United have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Southend United 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Carlisle United vs Southend United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.