Carlisle United vs Worthing: match statistics

Worthing are showing slightly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 14 goals in that span, averaging 2.8 per game. Over the same period, Carlisle United recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and scored 10 goals, which still confirms their attacking potential. However, the visitors conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match in their last five outings, compared with 0.8 for the hosts, so Carlisle should create genuine scoring opportunities. Worthing’s superior efficiency is decisive, along with their advantage of 2.4 points per game over the last five rounds compared with Carlisle’s 2.0. Although Carlisle sit higher in the table, the current scoring trend points slightly towards an away win for Worthing.

Worthing recorded BTTS - Yes in 4 of their last 5 matches, or 80% of games, while Carlisle did so in 2 of 5, equating to 40%. The hosts have recently scored an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Worthing conceded 1.2, giving Carlisle solid grounds to find the net. The visitors have been even more prolific, averaging 2.8 goals with an xG of 2.04, while Carlisle’s defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.49. Although Carlisle conceded only 0.8 goals per match during this run, Worthing’s attacking form and the high quality of their chances point more strongly towards BTTS - Yes than a clean sheet for either side. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Both teams are in excellent attacking form: Carlisle have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, while Worthing have netted as many as 14, averaging 2.0 and 2.8 goals per game respectively. In the same runs, 80% of each team’s matches ended with at least three goals, clearly supporting the prospect of an open game. The creative potential is also high, with average xG of 1.59 for Carlisle and 2.04 for Worthing, producing a combined projection of 3.40 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even after adjusting for Carlisle’s more solid defence, which has conceded only 4 goals in five appearances, two goals remain a highly probable minimum.

Data from the last five matches indicates a fairly even first half: both teams were level at half-time in 40% of their games, while each went into the break leading on 40% of occasions. Carlisle have looked slightly stronger before the break, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 0.4, compared with Worthing’s averages of 0.8 and 0.6 respectively. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts clearly towards Worthing, who score an average of 2.0 goals per match compared with Carlisle’s 0.8, while their second-half goal difference stands at +7 against the hosts’ +2. The visitors have won four of their last five matches and won the second half in 80% of them, making a half-time draw followed by a Worthing win at the final whistle the most likely outcome: X/2.