Carolina Core vs Chattanooga FC: match statistics
Carolina Core vs Chattanooga FC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Carolina Core played Chattanooga FC in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 12 July 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Carolina Core: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Chattanooga FC: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Carolina Core scores 1.17 and concedes 1.72 goals per match. Chattanooga FC scores 1.94 and concedes 1.65. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Carolina Core 67%, Chattanooga FC 65%. Over 2.5: Carolina Core 61%, Chattanooga FC 65%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Chattanooga FC has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.44. Carolina Core: 12.3 shots per match, Chattanooga FC: 13.5.
Match halves
Carolina Core: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.72. Chattanooga FC: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Carolina Core: 46-60 (7 goals). Chattanooga FC: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-3. Average goals 1.75, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match looks balanced: Chattanooga FC have superior season metrics (8 wins and 33 goals) versus Carolina Core (3 wins and 21 goals), and in their last 5 matches the visitors scored 12 goals and are unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws), translating to an average of 1.8 points per game versus 1.4 for the home side. Carolina Core benefit from home stability: at home they score 1.5 goals on average, concede 1.25 per match, have xG for 1.63 and xG against 1.63 and 0% of matches without scoring, while Chattanooga concede 2.13 goals on average away and have recorded no clean sheets. However, the visitors generate more high-quality chances: on average 5 shots on target per game versus 4.75 for the hosts, a better conversion rate of 15% compared to Carolina’s 11% and on average 1.88 goals away versus 1.5 for the hosts. Additionally, Carolina have scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches with 2 losses, while Chattanooga have 12 goals and 0 losses, which shows the visitors’ attacking advantage despite their defensive issues away. As a result I rate a draw as the most probable outcome and estimate the probability distribution at approximately 30% for Carolina Core, 40% for a draw and 30% for Chattanooga FC.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The primary signal for BTTS - Yes is that Chattanooga has BTTS in 88% of their away matches, while Carolina have BTTS at home in 44% of games, producing a strong asymmetric impulse favoring both teams to score. Additionally, Chattanooga have kept 0% clean sheets on the road and in their last 5 matches have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas Carolina in their last 5 have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Season averages confirm both sides generate goals: Carolina score 2.0 and concede 1.22 per game, Chattanooga score 1.88 and concede 2.13, and the league shows BTTS at 62% with an average of 3.27 goals per match. xG comparison shows Carolina xG 1.77 vs Chattanooga xG against 1.64, and Chattanooga xG 1.50 vs Carolina xG against 1.36, meaning both teams create more chances than opponents usually allow. Given Chattanooga’s 88% away BTTS, the absence of away clean sheets and positive xG on both sides, I select "yes" as the strongest signal with an estimated probability of about 72% vs 28%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.71 xG for Carolina Core (average of 1.77 attacking xG for hosts and 1.64 xG allowed by Chattanooga) and 1.43 xG for Chattanooga (average of 1.50 attacking xG for visitors and 1.36 xG allowed by Carolina), totaling 3.14 expected goals. Season-long metrics support a goals-prone fixture: Carolina has 78% of matches over 1.5, Chattanooga 88%, while over 2.5 rates are 56% (Carolina) and 75% (Chattanooga) versus a league average of 66%. Both teams create chances (Carolina 14.33 shots and 6.0 on target; Chattanooga 12.63 shots and 5.0 on target) with conversion rates of 14% and 15%, and in 44%/88% of matches both sides have scored, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated probability ~82%), as the 3.14 expected goals and high season figures of 78%/88% indicate a strong chance of a minimum of 2 goals. Over 2.5 is the second choice (estimated 66%), while Over 3.5 remains less certain (~38%) despite hosts recording 56% of matches over 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Carolina Core are the favorites: they win 67% of matches and average 2.0 goals per match versus Chattanooga, who have a 25% win rate and 1.88 goals on average, which favors the home side over 90 minutes. At half-time Carolina led in 44% of fixtures and score an average of 0.89 goals while conceding just 0.33, and they kept a clean sheet at the break in 78% of games, so the home advantage in the first half is clear. The hosts’ xG is 1.77 compared to the visitors’ 1.50, and a higher shots-on-target average (6.0 to 5.0) confirms better quality chances for Carolina, increasing the probability of maintaining the lead and securing the win. At the same time Chattanooga average 1.13 goals by half-time and have an away-season both-teams-to-score rate of 88%, so there is a real risk of a visiting goal in the second half and some probability mass shifts to turnaround scenarios. Considering the lead-at-the-break advantage (44%) and the hosts’ overall match-winning edge (67% wins), the strongest signal is 1/1, therefore I rate 1/1 as the best pick (32%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Carolina Core | Chattanooga FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chattanooga FC is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Carolina Core · 1.8 pts / match - Chattanooga FC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chattanooga FC is 66% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - Carolina Core · 1.94 goals / match - Chattanooga FC
Carolina Core scores in 78% of matches (14 of 18 matches), while Chattanooga FC keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
Chattanooga FC scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Carolina Core keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Carolina Core
Over / Under - Chattanooga FC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chattanooga FC is 59% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Carolina Core · 1.59 pts / match - Chattanooga FC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Carolina Core - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Chattanooga FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Carolina Core
Chattanooga FC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Carolina Core | Liga | Chattanooga FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.89 | 3.24 | ▲ 3.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 61% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 61% | 66% | • 65% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 22% | ▲ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 75% | ▼ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 84% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Carolina Core 0 - 1 - 3 Chattanooga FC. Average goals 1.75, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Carolina Core vs Chattanooga FC?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Carolina Core 1:1 Chattanooga FC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Carolina Core and Chattanooga FC?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Carolina Core won 0, Chattanooga FC won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Carolina Core vs Chattanooga FC?
Carolina Core score 1.17 goals per game on average and Chattanooga FC 1.94. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Carolina Core's matches and 65% of Chattanooga FC's.
What form are Carolina Core and Chattanooga FC in?
Over the last 5 games Carolina Core have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Chattanooga FC 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Carolina Core vs Chattanooga FC?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.