Carrarese vs Benevento: match statistics

Carrarese are in poor form, winless in their last 5 matches and having scored just 2 goals, but they create significantly more at home than Benevento do away from home. The hosts average 9.5 shots and an xG of 1.13, while the visitors record just 4 shots, 0 shots on target and an xG of 0.50 away from home. Benevento have failed to score in 100% of their away matches, losing every game on the road so far, which severely limits their chances. Carrarese also have defensive issues, conceding an average of 1.5 goals at home against opponents’ xG of 1.45; however, Benevento have yet to show the attacking quality required to exploit this consistently. The hosts therefore hold a narrow edge thanks to their greater activity in the final third and the visitors’ weaker away attacking profile.

The “No” selection is strongly supported by Benevento’s attacking data in away fixtures: the team averages 0.0 goals and 0.0 shots on target, and has failed to score in 100% of such matches. Carrarese have also lacked consistent finishing in their current form, averaging just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches, with BTTS recorded in 40% of them. The hosts do create more chances, with an average xG of 1.73 and 17.67 shots per match, giving them a realistic chance of scoring, but this does not guarantee an away goal. Benevento’s last 5 matches point in the opposite direction, as the team recorded BTTS in 80% of fixtures and scored 1.2 goals; however, their current away potential is too weak to outweigh the scenario in which at least one side fails to score. Compared with the league average, where BTTS occurs in 60% of matches, this fixture’s profile is more conducive to a result with a clean sheet for one of the teams.

The projected 2.20 goals is below the league average of 2.60, primarily due to Carrarese’s limited attacking potential, with the team scoring just 0.4 goals per match across its last five fixtures. Benevento averaged 1.2 goals during this period, but has yet to score in the available away-match data, with each such fixture finishing Under 2.5 goals. Only 20% of Carrarese’s last five matches featured at least three goals, while neither team has recorded a result above 4.5 goals in the available season sample. Although Benevento has conceded an average of 1.8 goals recently, Carrarese’s projected 1.12 xG from its last five matches limits the hosts’ chances of significantly increasing the total. Therefore, the strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as a scenario involving four or more goals would require significantly better finishing than Carrarese’s current form suggests.

The strongest indication is a draw at half-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while Carrarese failed to score a single first-half goal during that period. The hosts are in a clear slump: they have averaged just 0.4 goals across their last five games, lost 80% of them, and collected only 0.2 points per match. Benevento have also been underwhelming, but their average of 1.2 goals in their last five outings is three times higher than Carrarese’s tally, and they won 20% of those matches, compared with the opponents’ 0% win rate. Carrarese’s home-data advantage, reflected in an xG of 1.73 versus Benevento’s 0.50 away from home, as well as 17.67 shots per match, has nevertheless been weakened by their current lack of finishing. After the break, Benevento were involved in matches featuring at least two goals in 80% of their last five outings, so following a cautious start, the most likely scenario is a late turnaround in favour of the visitors.