Cartaginés vs Herediano: match statistics

Cartaginés has a clear advantage in creating attack at home: on average 13.47 shots and 4.18 on target per home match versus 10.75 shots and 3.56 on target for Herediano away — roughly 25% more attempts and about 17% more shots on target. Home xG is 1.6 compared to away xG of 1.31, and with similar shot conversion (10% vs 9%) this gives Cartaginés the edge in generating high-quality scoring chances. Both teams have similar recent point form (1.8 pts in the last 5 matches) and 3 wins in that period, but the hosts have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus Herediano’s 7. A weak point for Cartaginés is a short-term defensive downturn — 10 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (2.0 per match) versus 5 conceded (1.0 per match) for Herediano, although season-long concession averages are 0.82 (home) vs 0.81 (away). Considering better chance creation (13.47 shots, xG 1.6), a higher home win rate (59% vs 38% away) and lower risk of failing to score (FTS 24% vs 38%), I predict a home win.

Cartaginés record BTTS in 56% of home matches this season and as high as 80% in the last 5 games; they score an average of 1.81 goals at home (xG 1.79) and fail to score in only 13% of matches, which strongly supports a home goal. Herediano away has a seasonal BTTS of 31% and averages 0.94 goals (xG 1.31), but in the last 5 matches they have 60% BTTS, average 1.4 goals and xG 1.93, so recently they are creating significantly more chances. xG comparison shows Cartaginés home xG 1.79 versus Herediano away xG against 1.52, and Herediano away xG 1.31 versus xG against Cartaginés 1.33 — both teams have realistic scoring opportunities. Additionally Cartaginés concede an average of 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (seasonal 1.13 at home), while Herediano concede 1.0 in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering these figures (56% and 80% for hosts, 31% and 60% for visitors and clean-sheet rates 13% vs 38%), I assess BTTS at 62% vs 38% and pick BTTS - Yes.

Expected xG gives 1.66 goals for Cartaginés and 1.32 for Herediano (total 2.98), calculated as home attack xG 1.79 and away defense xG 1.52, and 1.31 and 1.33 the other way. A Poisson model with λ≈2.98 suggests roughly 80% chance of Over 1.5, ≈57% for Over 2.5 and ≈35% for Over 3.5. Team trends are mixed – Cartaginés at home has Over 2.5 in 69% of matches, Herediano away only 19%, but in the last 5 matches both teams have 80% and 60% Over 2.5 respectively, which increases the probability of a higher-scoring game. Additionally the home side average 14.56 shots and 4.63 on target with a 12% conversion, visitors 10.75 and 3.56 with 9%, and BTTS is 56% vs 31%, indicating numerous goalscoring situations and favoring Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Cartaginés has a clear home advantage: 63% wins at their stadium and on average 1.81 goals scored per match versus Herediano’s 0.94, with xG 1.79 vs 1.31 and 14.56 shots taken vs the visitors’ 10.75. In the first half the hosts led in 6 of 16 matches (38%) and score on average 0.81 goals by half-time, while Herediano has 0.44; however, it is notable that the visitors keep a clean sheet at the break in 75% of their games, which limits the propensity for a large lead after 45 minutes. After the break Cartaginés is stronger — they score on average 1.0 goal in the second half, have 44% wins in second halves and 27 points gained after the break versus Herediano’s 18 — so when leading at half-time they have a good chance to maintain the victory. The above figures (xG 1.79 vs 1.31, shot conversion 12% vs 9%, more shots on target 4.63 vs 3.56) indicate the hosts’ offensive edge and a higher probability of holding a lead from half-time to full-time. For this reason the strongest signal is Cartaginés leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) — I assign this scenario a 30% probability, while allowing 18% for a turnaround from draw to home win (X/1) and 14% for a half-time/full-time draw-draw (X/X) due to Herediano’s solid half-time clean sheets.