Cartusia Kartuzy vs Lipno Stęszew: match statistics

I predict a home win (1) because Cartusia has a clear advantage in home metrics: on average 1.62 goals scored at home versus Lipno’s 1.31 away, and only 1.23 goals conceded at home versus Lipno’s 2.08 away. Additionally, the hosts average 5.8 shots on target per home match versus Lipno’s 4.5 on the road and have a higher home xG (1.53 vs 1.41), indicating better quality of created chances. The counterargument is Cartusia’s poor form in the last five matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses and only 0.4 points per game with a goal record of 5 scored and 10 conceded, while Lipno have 1.0 point per game in their last five and a 6:8 goal record. Considering the season home win rate of 54% and a higher clean sheet percentage (23% vs 8%), I assess the probabilities as: Cartusia win 55%, draw 22%, Lipno win 23%.

I predict Both Teams To Score (BTTS = Yes) at 75% probability. The primary signal is form: in the last 5 matches both teams had BTTS 80% (for Cartusia and for Lipno), with Cartusia conceding an average of 2.0 goals in those 5 matches versus Lipno conceding 1.6. Season metrics show Lipno has a high BTTS 69% and only 8% clean sheets, while Cartusia has season BTTS 43% and 43% clean sheets, indicating Lipno’s weak defense (seasonal average 2.08 goals conceded) and Cartusia’s recent tendency to concede increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. xG for both teams is similar: 1.46 (Cartusia) vs 1.41 (Lipno), totaling about 2.87 xG per match, and both average roughly 4.5 shots on target, so offensively they are capable of scoring. Considering 80% BTTS in the last 5 games, Lipno’s 69% season BTTS and the 1.6–2.0 goals conceded on average in the last 5 matches, the BTTS scenario clearly looks stronger than the alternative that one team keeps a clean sheet.

The xG-based model indicates total expected goals of 3.07 (Cartusia 1.62 vs Lipno 1.45), calculated as the average of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s xG: (1.46+1.78)/2 = 1.62 and (1.41+1.49)/2 = 1.45. Additionally, Lipno has 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals and concedes on average 2.08 goals per match, while Cartusia concedes 1.14 goals per match, which increases the likelihood of more goals. Season Over 2.5 percentages are 36% for Cartusia and 62% for Lipno (average 49%), and the league average for Over 2.5 is 56%, so the projected xG of 3.07 suggests a higher probability of Over 2.5 than single-team indicators alone imply. Furthermore, Cartusia has 43% clean sheets versus only 8% for Lipno, and BTTS occurs in 43% of home matches and 69% of away matches (average 56%), confirming that Lipno’s games are often open with goals from both sides. Based on this, I recommend Over 2.5 as the best value (I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at 62%), with Over 1.5 assessed at about 82% and Over 3.5 at about 32%.

I forecast 1/1 (Cartusia leads at the break and wins) because the home side has a small but meaningful advantage. At half-time Cartusia averages 0.71 goals versus Lipno’s 0.67, and xG is 1.46 to 1.41 in favor of the hosts, which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. Lipno concedes an average of 2.08 goals per match and 1.5 goals in the second half, while Cartusia has collected 18 points in second halves (an average of 1.29 points in the second half versus 0.42 for the visitors), suggesting the hosts often maintain or extend their lead after the break. Additionally, the hosts have 43% of matches with a clean sheet this season versus 8% for the visitors, reinforcing the scenario of holding the lead; therefore 1/1 is the strongest signal, although there is also a notable probability of 2/2 (~23%).