Cartusia Kartuzy vs Tłuchowia Tłuchowo: match statistics

I predict a home win ('1'), because Cartusia averages 1.75 goals per home match while Tłuchowia scores only 1.08 on the road (difference 0.67). Hosts concede 1.33 goals at home versus 2.17 conceded by the visitors away (difference 0.84). Additionally, Cartusia averages 5.75 shots on target from 11.25 shots per match with a conversion rate of 16% compared to Tłuchowia’s 4.33 shots on target, 10 shots and 12% conversion. xG also favors the hosts: average home xG for Cartusia is 1.48 versus 1.26 for the visitors, with xG against 1.64 vs 1.83, indicating higher-quality chances created and a more secure defense. In the short term the visitors have a slightly better return (2 wins in the last 5 and 1.2 points per game vs 1 win and 0.8 points for the hosts), but in the last 5 matches the visitors conceded 10 goals versus 8 for the hosts, and the visitors failed to score in 33% of away games vs 17% for the hosts, which lowers their chances. Considering the advantage in efficiency and number of shots on target and the lower average goals conceded (1.33 vs 2.17), I assess the probabilities as: home 62%, draw 18%, away 20%.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 42% (Cartusia 42% vs Tłuchowia 42%), but in the last 5 matches BTTS rose to 60% vs 60%, providing a strong short-term signal. Seasonally the home side concedes 1.58 goals per game on average and the away side 2.17, and in the last 5 matches they conceded 1.6 (home) and 2.0 (away) on average, so both teams are prone to conceding. Offensively both generate around 1.3 xG per game (1.31 vs 1.26) with xG against of 1.6 and 1.83, and the away team attempts more on-target shots 4.33 vs 3.4 and has higher finishing rate 12% vs 7%, which increases the likelihood of scoring. Clean sheets occur in only 25% of home matches and 33% of away matches, and the over 2.5 goals percentage is 50% and 58%, which further supports BTTS. In summary, with 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, high average goals conceded (1.58 and 2.17) and an offensive edge for the away team, I recommend BTTS - Yes with probability 68% vs 32%.

Raw xG analysis gives 1.57 for the home side (attacking xG 1.31 vs away defensive xG 1.83) and 1.43 for the visitors (attacking xG 1.26 vs home defensive xG 1.60), i.e. roughly 3.00 goals total. However, the home team struggles to finish: their season average goals is 0.67 with xG 1.31 (conversion ratio ~0.51) and shot conversion 7% with 3.4 shots on target, while the visitors have 1.08 goals with xG 1.26 (ratio ~0.86) and 12% conversion with 4.33 on-target. Accounting for these adjustments and recent form over the last 5 matches (both teams scoring 1.2 on average in the last 5), I forecast about 1.10 goals for the home team and 1.30 for the visitors, totaling 2.40. Seasonal rates support the pick: home over 1.5 occurs in 58% and away over 1.5 in 67% of matches, and over 2.5 at 50%/58% respectively, so the strongest signal from the data is a play on over 1.5 (approx. 75% probability), whereas over 3.5 is less reliable (25%/42%).

Half-time data clearly favor the visitors: Tłuchowia led at the break in 4 matches (36%) versus only 2 such instances for Cartusia (17%), with an average first-half goals of 0.73 for the visitors compared to 0.17 for the hosts. Over the full match Tłuchowia averages 1.08 goals with a shot conversion rate of 12%, while Cartusia averages 0.67 goals with a 7% conversion; despite similar xG (1.31 for Cartusia vs 1.26 for Tłuchowia), the visitors are more efficient at finishing chances. After the break both teams concede a fair number of goals (on average 1.17 conceded by the hosts and 1.27 by the visitors), but in the last 5 matches the results edge is with the visitors (Tłuchowia 40% wins vs Cartusia 20%), which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Given the 36% rate of visitors leading at the break, the higher goals-per-game 1.08 vs 0.67 and better shot efficiency, the strongest scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT: 2/2).