Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga: match statistics
Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Casa Pia played Sporting Braga in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 23 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Casa Pia: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Sporting Braga: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Casa Pia scores 0.97 and concedes 1.79 goals per match. Sporting Braga scores 1.97 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Casa Pia 48%, Sporting Braga 52%. Over 2.5: Casa Pia 48%, Sporting Braga 69%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Sporting Braga has higher xG: 1.52 vs 0.98. Casa Pia: 8.7 shots per match, Sporting Braga: 12.3.
Match halves
Casa Pia: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.48. Sporting Braga: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Casa Pia: 31-45+ (6 goals). Sporting Braga: 16-30 (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sporting Braga are favorites based on clear numerical evidence: the visitors sit 4th with 57 goals scored this season, while Casa Pia are 16th with 28. In their last 5 matches Braga have scored 9 goals (3-2-0) and average 2.2 points per game, whereas Casa Pia have just 2 goals in their last 5, are winless (0-3-2) and average 0.6 points per game. Offensively on the road Braga average 1.86 goals with an xG of 1.69, 5.71 shots on target and 64% possession; Casa Pia at home average 1.21 goals, xG 0.92, 2.64 shots on target and 41% possession. Defensively the hosts concede 1.64 goals at home (52 conceded this season) and have only 14% clean sheets at home, while Braga concede 1.00 goal away and keep 36% clean sheets; Casa Pia have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches. Considering Braga’s advantage in xG (1.69 vs 0.92), in shots on target (5.71 vs 2.64) and the fact that Casa Pia failed to score in 36% of their home games versus Braga’s 7% blanks away, I predict an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I select 'BTTS - Yes' because Sporting Braga has a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% and 60% in the last 5 matches, scored 57 goals this season (1.86 per game) and has xG 1.69 per match, indicating consistent attacking threat from the visitors. Casa Pia has a seasonal BTTS of 47% and 40% in the last 5, but scores 2.07 goals per game at home this season and has a higher conversion rate of 19% versus Braga's 13%, so despite poorer form (only 2 goals in the last 5) they can still find the net. Both teams concede on average 1.0 goal per game this season, and in the last 5 fixtures Casa Pia conceded 8 goals (1.6 per game) versus Braga's 5 goals (1.0 per game), which increases the likelihood of the home side shipping a goal. Additionally, the high share of matches over 2.5 goals — Casa Pia 73% and Braga 64% — and moderately low clean sheet frequency (40% and 36%) favor a game with goals from both sides. Considering these figures (57% vs 47% BTTS, xG 1.69 vs 1.36, recent series 60% vs 40%), I estimate BTTS probability at 65% and choose 'yes' as the best pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.26 goals for Casa Pia and 1.31 for Sporting Braga, totaling 2.57 goals. Season metrics show Over 1.5 occurred in 73% of Casa Pia’s matches and 79% of Braga’s, while Over 2.5 occurred in 73% and 64% respectively, favoring Over 1.5 and supporting Over 2.5. Braga holds the advantage in chance creation and form: xG_for 1.69 vs 1.36, average shots 13.86 vs 10.87 and shots on target 5.71 vs 4.4; in the last 5 matches Braga scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) while Casa Pia scored only 2 (0.4 avg). Casa Pia have also defended poorly recently — last5 xG against 1.42 and 8 conceded goals in the last 5 matches with only 40% clean sheets on the season — increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. For these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈80%) with moderate support for Over 2.5 (≈65%), while Over 3.5 looks less likely (~38%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Sporting Braga has a statistical advantage in chance creation: xG 1.69 versus 1.36 for Casa Pia, an average of 13.86 shots versus 10.87 and 5.71 shots on target versus 4.4, although Casa Pia has a higher conversion rate (19% vs 13%). In the last five matches form clearly favors the visitors — Braga has a 60% win rate and 1.8 goals per game, while Casa Pia has a 0% win rate and only 0.4 goals on average, which weakens their chances of maintaining a lead. Season-to-date at half-time Casa Pia led HT in 53% of home matches versus 43% for Braga away, but in the most recent five fixtures the hosts led HT in only 20% and Braga in 40%, with half-time goals in those five games averaging 0.2 (Casa Pia) vs 0.8 (Braga), which supports a half-time draw. After the break Braga have been more active in the last five: on average 1.0 goals after half-time versus 0.2 for Casa Pia, and second-half points are 1.6 vs 0.6, so the strongest signal is a draw at the break and a win for the visitors (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Casa Pia | Sporting Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sporting Braga is 167% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Casa Pia · 1.6 pts / match - Sporting Braga
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sporting Braga is 103% better for: goals scored per match.
0.97 goals / match - Casa Pia · 1.97 goals / match - Sporting Braga
Sporting Braga is 79% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.79 goals / match - Casa Pia · 1 goals / match - Sporting Braga
Casa Pia scores in 55% of matches (16 of 29 matches), while Sporting Braga keeps a clean sheet in 38% (11 of 29 matches).
Sporting Braga scores in 90% of matches (26 of 29 matches), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Casa Pia
Over / Under - Sporting Braga
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sporting Braga is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.17 pts / match - Casa Pia · 1.69 pts / match - Sporting Braga
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Sporting Braga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Casa Pia
Sporting Braga
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Casa Pia | Liga | Sporting Braga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.76 | 2.69 | ▲ 2.97 |
| Both teams scored | • 48% | 47% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 54% | ▲ 69% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 30% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | • 69% | 70% | ▲ 90% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 79% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Casa Pia 0 - 0 - 1 Sporting Braga. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga?
The Liga NOS match finished Casa Pia 0:1 Sporting Braga. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga?
Casa Pia score 0.97 goals per game on average and Sporting Braga 1.97. The Liga NOS average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Casa Pia's matches and 52% of Sporting Braga's.
What form are Casa Pia and Sporting Braga in?
Over the last 5 games Casa Pia have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Sporting Braga 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.