Casertana vs Team Altamura: match statistics

Both teams have drawn all of their matches so far in their current roles, while Casertana are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded across their two home fixtures. The hosts create more chances, registering 15 shots per game at home with an xG of 1.53, whereas Team Altamura have managed just 6 attempts and an xG of 1.04 away from home. However, the visitors look more solid without the ball: they concede an average of 1.0 goal away from home, compared with Casertana’s 2.5 at home, while their xGA stands at 1.55 versus 1.76 for the hosts. Recent form slightly favours Altamura, who have collected 8 points and conceded 6 goals in their last five matches, while Casertana have earned 6 points and allowed 9 goals. Casertana’s advantage in chance creation should offset the visitors’ superior defensive organisation, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The latest form clearly favors goals at both ends: Casertana recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Team Altamura did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded, whereas the visitors scored 1.2 goals per match and allowed their opponents the same average. Their attacking potential is also supported by the average xG from their last five appearances: 1.64 for Casertana and 1.38 for Altamura, with xG against of 1.45 and 1.43, respectively. Season-long data is less conclusive, as Casertana score just 0.5 goals per home match and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, while Altamura have not kept a single clean sheet. The advantage of current form, combined with both teams’ regular tendency to allow opponents goal-scoring chances, points slightly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as both teams have recorded 100% of their league matches below this line so far, with neither side having played a game featuring at least three goals. Casertana have averaged 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Altamura have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded away from home. Recent form has been noticeably more open: Casertana have scored and conceded 1.8 goals per game across their last five matches, while Altamura have averaged 1.2 in both categories, which reduces the value of playing Under 2.5. At the same time, the xG figures from the last five matches—1.64 for Casertana and 1.38 for Altamura, with 1.45 and 1.43 xG conceded respectively—point to a projected total of around 2.62 goals rather than a very high-scoring game. The 3.5 line therefore provides a safe margin for scenarios such as 1:1, 2:1 or 2:0 and offers a clear edge over the over.

The most likely scenario is Casertana taking the lead at the break, with Team Altamura securing a draw after half-time. In their last five matches, the hosts averaged 1.0 goals before the break, compared with 0.4 for the visitors, while their goal difference in this period stood at +1 versus Altamura’s -1. Casertana also hold a slight edge in chance creation, averaging 1.17 xG compared with 1.04 for their opponents, while Altamura’s defence allows an average xG of 1.55. At the same time, the visitors are difficult to beat over the full 90 minutes, having recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, while Casertana have drawn as many as 3. After the break, Altamura averaged 0.8 goals over their last five matches, the same as the hosts, reinforcing the HT/FT X/2 scenario rather than Casertana maintaining a one-goal lead.