Catanzaro vs Palermo: match statistics
Catanzaro vs Palermo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Catanzaro played Palermo in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Catanzaro: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Palermo: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Catanzaro scores 1.67 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. Palermo scores 1.61 and concedes 0.87. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Catanzaro 67%, Palermo 42%. Over 2.5: Catanzaro 56%, Palermo 45%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Palermo has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.41. Catanzaro: 13.1 shots per match, Palermo: 14.2.
Match halves
Catanzaro: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.95. Palermo: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.92.
Goals by minute
Catanzaro: 76-90+ (14 goals). Palermo: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Catanzaro possess strong home advantages: averaging 1.85 goals per game with 4.9 shots on target and a conversion rate of 13%, while Palermo away average 1.21 goals with 3.89 shots on target and a 9% conversion. The hosts rarely lose at home (only 10% defeats, 50% wins and 40% draws) and have a +14 home goal difference, whereas Palermo on the road have a lower win rate (32%), more losses (26%) and only +2 in away goal difference. Both defenses are similar in raw numbers: Catanzaro concede 1.15 goals per game at home, Palermo 1.11 away, and expected xG are nearly equal (xG 1.46 vs 1.47), indicating balanced chances in chance creation. The key advantage for the hosts is consistency in scoring and a low percentage of goalless games — Catanzaro fail to score in only 10% of home matches, while Palermo are goalless in 26% of away fixtures. Form over the last 5 matches also shows the hosts' attacking edge: Catanzaro scored 12 goals with a 2-1-2 record (1.4 points per game), Palermo 7 goals with a 2-2-1 record (1.6 points per game). Therefore I predict a home win; probabilities: 50% Catanzaro, 28% draw, 22% Palermo win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Data give mixed signals: Catanzaro has a season BTTS 32% and 63% clean sheets at home, but scores on average 2.0 goals at home, while Palermo has a season BTTS 53% and scores 1.21 goals on average away. In the last 5 matches the trend shifts in favor of BTTS: Catanzaro had BTTS in 80% of cases, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.8 on average, and Palermo had BTTS in 60% of their last 5, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2. xG confirms both teams create chances: recent xG is 1.7 for Catanzaro and 1.66 for Palermo; seasonally Catanzaro has xG for 1.63 and xG against 1.28, and Palermo 1.47 and 1.38. The league has an average BTTS level of 54% and Palermo has relatively low shot conversion 9% versus Catanzaro's 14%, which together with offensive activity increases the probability of goals from both sides. Considering the dominant recent period (80% vs 60%), similar xG and the rise in Catanzaro's average goals conceded from 0.63 to 1.8, I predict BTTS as more likely and estimate a YES probability at 65% and NO at 35%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I used xG and seasonal averages to estimate expected goals: Catanzaro has xG for 1.63 and Palermo xG against 1.38, which averaged gives about 1.50 expected goals for the home side; similarly Palermo xG for 1.47 and Catanzaro xG against 1.28 yield about 1.38 for the visitors. After adjusting these values with seasonal goals averages (Catanzaro 2.00 at home, Palermo 1.21 away) I adopt a projection of 1.53 for Catanzaro and 1.18 for Palermo, totaling 2.71 expected goals. Seasonal metrics confirm this trend: over 1.5 occurs in 74% of matches for both teams, and Catanzaro in the last 5 matches scores an average of 2.4 goals and has over 2.5 in 80% of games. From a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.71 I obtain probability of over 1.5 at approximately 75%, over 2.5 around 51% and over 3.5 about 29%. Therefore the strongest signal is a play on Over 1.5 (higher probability and consistent confirmation by xG and the seasonal 74%), while Over 2.5 is marginal (around 51%) and Over 3.5 is too risky (about 29%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1: Catanzaro led at the break in 12 matches (63%) and average 0.95 goals by half-time with an average concession of 0.26, while Palermo average 0.42 first-half goals and concede 0.37. Over the full 90 minutes the home side average 2.00 goals scored and 0.63 conceded, versus the visitors’ 1.21 scored and 1.11 conceded, giving Catanzaro an advantage both offensively and defensively. Home xG is 1.63 compared to the visitors’ 1.47, average shots on target are 5.16 vs 3.89, and a conversion rate of 14% vs 9% confirms greater home efficiency. Additionally, Catanzaro win 74% of matches at home compared to Palermo’s 32% away win rate, so the most likely outcome is the home side to lead at the break and maintain that lead to full-time.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Catanzaro | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Palermo is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Catanzaro · 1.6 pts / match - Palermo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palermo is 51% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.31 goals / match - Catanzaro · 0.87 goals / match - Palermo
Catanzaro scores in 85% of matches (33 of 39 matches), while Palermo keeps a clean sheet in 45% (17 of 38 matches).
Palermo scores in 79% of matches (30 of 38 matches), while Catanzaro keeps a clean sheet in 26% (10 of 39 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Catanzaro
Over / Under - Palermo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palermo is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.51 pts / match - Catanzaro · 1.71 pts / match - Palermo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Catanzaro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Palermo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Catanzaro
Palermo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Catanzaro | Liga | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.97 | 2.55 | • 2.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 54% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 48% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | • 26% | 27% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 70% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 78% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Catanzaro 1 - 0 - 1 Palermo. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Catanzaro vs Palermo?
The Serie B match finished Catanzaro 3:0 Palermo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Palermo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Catanzaro won 1, Palermo won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Catanzaro vs Palermo?
Catanzaro score 1.67 goals per game on average and Palermo 1.61. The Serie B average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Catanzaro's matches and 42% of Palermo's.
What form are Catanzaro and Palermo in?
Over the last 5 games Catanzaro have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Palermo 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Catanzaro vs Palermo?
The statistical background for Catanzaro vs Palermo — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.