Catanzaro vs Spezia: match statistics
Catanzaro vs Spezia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Catanzaro played Spezia in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Current form
Catanzaro: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Spezia: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Catanzaro scores 1.54 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Spezia scores 1.09 and concedes 1.49. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Catanzaro 66%, Spezia 54%. Over 2.5: Catanzaro 51%, Spezia 43%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Catanzaro has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.34. Catanzaro: 12.9 shots per match, Spezia: 11.6.
Match halves
Catanzaro: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.89. Spezia: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Catanzaro: 46-60 (13 goals). Spezia: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Catanzaro holds a clear home advantage: they average 1.65 goals per home match with xG 1.42 and 13.76 shots, while Spezia on the road average 1.00 goal with xG 1.30 and 11.53 shots. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Catanzaro concedes 1.06 goals at home on average (xG against 1.33), whereas Spezia concedes 1.65 goals away (xG against 1.63). Additionally, Catanzaro have only 12% of home matches without scoring and 35% clean sheets, while Spezia fail to score in 35% of away matches and register just 18% clean sheets. Both teams are in poorer form over the last 5 matches: Catanzaro 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss (0.8 points per game), Spezia 1-1-3 (0.8 points per game), which raises the probability of a point split. Considering the hosts’ superior offensive efficiency and defence and Spezia’s high rate of away defeats (59%), I assess the chances as 50% for a Catanzaro win, 33% for a draw and 17% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Analysis indicates an advantage for the BTTS option as follows: Catanzaro has BTTS at 56%, Spezia 53%, and the league average is 55%, with both teams recording BTTS in the last 5 matches at 100% (Catanzaro) and 80% (Spezia). Both sides regularly concede — season average goals conceded are 1.33 for the home team and 1.65 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches they concede 1.6 and 2.0 goals on average. xG confirms offensive potential and vulnerability: attacking xG is 1.37 vs 1.30, and opponent xG is 1.26 vs 1.63 for Catanzaro and Spezia, indicating chance creation alongside exposure to conceding. Additionally, low clean sheet percentages of 17% and 18% and equal 4.06 shots on target per game with conversion rates of 10% and 9% suggest both teams have a realistic chance to score. Considering the seasonal 56%/53%, recent 100%/80%, low CS 17%/18% and average concessions 1.6/2.0 in the last 5, I assess BTTS probability at 76% for Yes and 24% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (1.37 for Catanzaro vs 1.30 for Spezia) and xG against (1.63 for Spezia vs 1.26 for Catanzaro) yields expected goals of 1.50 for the home side and 1.28 for the away side, total 2.78. For that total, a Poisson distribution calculates roughly a 77% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals, and approximately 30% probability of Over 3.5 goals. Seasonal metrics support this direction: Catanzaro has 78% of home matches Over 1.5, Spezia 71% of away matches, and BTTS occurrences are 56% and 53% respectively (in the last 5 home matches the hosts had BTTS in 100% of games, for the visitors 80%). Spezia concedes on average 1.65 goals per game and has an xG against of 1.63, which increases the risk of goals conceded by the away side; for these reasons the strongest data signal is to play Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is X/1 (draw at half-time, home win): both teams frequently draw at the break — Catanzaro draws in 39% of home matches and Spezia in 59% of away matches, yielding an average ~49% chance of a draw HT. After the break the advantage lies with the home side: Catanzaro has a positive second-half goal difference of +2 and has collected 21 points in second halves (on average 1.17 pts), whereas Spezia has a negative second-half record (-7) and concedes on average 1.00 goal after the break; additionally, 88% of Spezia’s away matches feature at least one goal in the second half. This is corroborated by xG and seasonal figures — home xG 1.37 vs away 1.30, and xG against for the visitors 1.63, indicating weaker Spezia defense, with season average goals 1.17 (Catanzaro) vs 1.00 (Spezia). Based on this I assign X/1 the highest probability at 22%, with 1/1 at 10% and 2/2 at 15% as the next realistic scenarios; overall I estimate approximately 41% chance of a home win, 33% for a draw and 26% for an away win.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Catanzaro | Spezia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Catanzaro is 41% better for: goals scored per match.
1.54 goals / match - Catanzaro · 1.09 goals / match - Spezia
Catanzaro is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.23 goals / match - Catanzaro · 1.49 goals / match - Spezia
Catanzaro scores in 83% of matches (29 of 35 matches), while Spezia keeps a clean sheet in 17% (6 of 35 matches).
Spezia scores in 66% of matches (23 of 35 matches), while Catanzaro keeps a clean sheet in 26% (9 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Catanzaro
Over / Under - Spezia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Catanzaro is 64% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.49 pts / match - Catanzaro · 0.91 pts / match - Spezia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Catanzaro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Spezia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Catanzaro
Spezia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Catanzaro | Liga | Spezia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.77 | 2.55 | • 2.57 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 66% | 55% | • 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 51% | 49% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | • 26% | 26% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 71% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 78% | • 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Catanzaro 0 - 1 - 0 Spezia. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Catanzaro vs Spezia?
The Serie B match finished Catanzaro 4:2 Spezia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Catanzaro vs Spezia?
Catanzaro score 1.54 goals per game on average and Spezia 1.09. The Serie B average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 66% of Catanzaro's matches and 54% of Spezia's.
What form are Catanzaro and Spezia in?
Over the last 5 games Catanzaro have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Spezia 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Catanzaro vs Spezia?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Catanzaro vs Spezia: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.