CD Castellón vs Cádiz: match statistics

CD Castellón is a clear favorite at home: 63% home win rate, averaging 2.05 goals scored per game and a +16 home goal differential. Cádiz arrives in poor form — in the last 5 matches they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring only 3 goals and averaging 0.2 points per game over that span. The gap in chance quality is significant: Castellón averages 15.74 shots and 5.42 on target at home with xG 1.80, while Cádiz away averages 8.26 shots, 2.58 on target and xG 0.96. Defensively the hosts concede 1.21 goals at home versus 1.47 conceded by Cádiz away, and the visitors fail to score in 42% of away matches compared to just 11% of Castellón’s home games, further highlighting Cádiz’s offensive problem. Considering better control (55% possession vs 43%), markedly higher xG and greater shooting efficiency, I predict a home win (probabilities 70%/20%/10%).

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 45% (Castellón) and 47% (Cádiz), below the league average of 55%, but the strongest signal is the home side's form. In the last 5 matches Castellón has BTTS in 100%, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded with an average xG of 2.08 over that period. Cádiz in their last 5 has BTTS 40%, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.8 on average, yet seasonally they concede 1.47 goals with an xG against of 1.65, so they frequently allow goal-scoring opportunities. Additionally, Castellón averages 11.8 shots and 3.55 shots on target with an 8% conversion, while Cádiz averages 8.26 shots and 2.58 on target with an 11% conversion; Castellón has scored 66 and conceded 49 this season, Cádiz scored 36 and conceded 56, and clean sheets are at 30% and 21%, which favors goals from both sides. In light of these numbers the most likely scenario is BTTS = Yes.

I estimate total expected goals at 2.89 (Castellón 1.67 vs Cádiz 1.22) based on a comparison of xG and recent form. Castellón’s season xG is 1.34, and xG against Cádiz is 1.65 — the average of these two values yields ~1.50, while the last 5 matches (home side xG 2.08 and xG against their opponents 1.60) give ~1.84, hence the adopted 1.67 for the home team. For Cádiz the seasonal combination (0.96 + 1.53)/2 = 1.25, last 5 (1.15 + 1.24)/2 = 1.20, which results in approximately 1.22 expected goals for the away side. Castellón in the last 5 matches scored 10 and conceded 8 goals and has 80% Over 2.5 matches, whereas Cádiz has 3 scored and 9 conceded with 60% Over 2.5 — this strengthens the signal for the over. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (approx. 78% probability), with moderate support for Over 2.5 (~55%), while Over 3.5 remains less likely (~33%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). A draw at the break is common in these statistics — Castellón drew at half-time in 40% of matches (8 times), Cádiz in 47% (9 times), and Castellón recorded a half-time draw in 4 of the last 5 fixtures (80%). However, Castellón have the stronger finish: over the last 5 matches they averaged 1.6 points per game and scored on average 1.2 goals after the break, whereas Cádiz average 0.2 points and 0.2 post-break goals, indicating a stronger second-half performance by the hosts. Additionally, attacking metrics favor Castellón: xG 1.34 versus 0.96 for Cádiz and 3.55 shots on target versus 2.58, which, given the low first-half returns (average 0.45 goals for the home side vs 0.37 for the visitors at the break), increases the likelihood of a decisive outcome after the interval. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the X/1 scenario (35%), with X/X (25%) and 1/1 (10%) as the next most likely alternatives.