CD Castellón vs Granada CF: match statistics

CD Castellón has a clear home advantage in underlying metrics: at home they average 2.00 goals per match (53 goals this season), record xG 1.77 and 5.25 shots on target from 15.63 attempts per game on average, while Granada as visitors average 1.06 goals per match (41 goals this season), xG 1.16 and only 3.25 shots on target. Hosts win 63% of their home matches and have a positive home goal difference of +14, whereas Granada win 31% of away games and have 31% of away matches goalless, which increases the risk of a shutout for the visitors. The last 5 matches, however, favor Granada — the visitors have scored 9 goals and average 2.00 points per game in the last 5, while Castellón scored 7, conceded 10 and average only 1.00 point per game in this period. Defensively the hosts concede 1.13 goals at home versus Granada’s 1.25 away, but xG against (1.18 for Castellón vs 1.46 for Granada) indicates the visitors more often allow opponents better chances. Considering the hosts’ superiority in both quality and quantity of offensive opportunities (xG 1.77 vs 1.16, 5.25 SOT vs 3.25 SOT) and the low share of home matches without a goal (13% vs 31%), I predict a home win; I estimate probabilities at 60% home win, 20% draw and 20% away win.

Castellón at home averages 1.41 scored and 1.06 conceded, while Granada scores 1.06 and concedes 1.25, so both teams regularly allow goals. xG shows 1.51 for Castellón versus 1.46 xG created against Granada, suggesting the home side will generate real chances; Granada has xG 1.16 with xG against 1.14 for Castellón, so they also have scoring opportunities. Season BTTS rates are 59% for Castellón and 44% for Granada, with the league average at 55% BTTS; in the last 5 matches Castellón recorded 80% BTTS and Granada 40%, which slightly favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. Additionally Castellón averages 14.24 shots (4.18 on target) versus Granada’s 10.31 (3.25 on target) and in the last 5 matches concedes 2.0 goals on average, while Granada scores 1.8 on average, therefore I predict a higher probability of BTTS - Yes.

I estimated expected goals at ~1.49 for CD Castellón and ~1.15 for Granada (home xG 1.51 vs opponents’ xG_allowed 1.46; away xG_for 1.16 vs home xG_against 1.14), yielding a total of ~2.64 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.64 gives P(Over 1.5) ≈ 74%, P(Over 2.5) ≈ 49% and P(Over 3.5) ≈ 27%. Season-long stats confirm a goal-prone tendency: the home side has Over 1.5 in 65% of matches, the away side in 69%, and Over 0.5 occurs in 76% and 94% of their matches respectively. In the last 5 games Castellón scored 7 and conceded 10 (avg. 1.4 scored, 2.0 conceded), while Granada scored 9 and conceded 5 (avg. 1.8 and 1.0), which further increases the probability of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (p≈74%), so the recommendation is to play the Over at 1.5; the 2.5 line is balanced (~49% Over), and 3.5 has low probability (~27%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X), as Castellón were level at the break in 59% of their home matches and finished home games as draws in 47% of cases. The hosts average 1.0 goals before the break versus Granada’s 0.56, and the season goal figures are 1.41 for Castellón and 1.06 for Granada; xG is 1.51 versus 1.16, indicating a slight attacking edge for the hosts who create chances more often but do not necessarily decide the match. Granada are in better form over the last five matches (60% wins and leading at the break in 60% of those games), however they have a higher average of goals conceded at 1.25 per game and a lower average of shots on target at 3.25, so I do not expect clear dominance after the break. Considering these numbers I assign 30% to X/X, 18% to 1/1 and 15% to X/1 as the three most likely scenarios; lower probabilities are assigned to Granada winning after the break due to their worse goals-conceded average.