CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora: match statistics
CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
CD Nacional played Estrela Amadora in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 30 August 2026. Venue: Estádio da Madeira. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
CD Nacional: 1-1-1, 1.33 points/match. Estrela Amadora: 0-2-0, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
CD Nacional scores 1.33 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Estrela Amadora scores 2.00 and concedes 2.00. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: CD Nacional 33%, Estrela Amadora 100%. Over 2.5: CD Nacional 33%, Estrela Amadora 100%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
CD Nacional has higher xG: 1.25 vs 1.16. CD Nacional: 12.3 shots per match, Estrela Amadora: 9.0.
Match halves
CD Nacional: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.67. Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 2.00.
Goals by minute
CD Nacional: 31-45+ (2 goals). Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
CD Nacional have a clearly superior record across their last five matches: they have collected 8 points from 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, while Estrela Amadora have managed only 4 points and are yet to win a match. At home, Nacional have won 100% of their matches so far, averaging 2 goals scored and having yet to concede, with an xG of 1.90. Estrela also average 2 goals per away match, but concede as many as 2 per game, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and their attacking xG stands at just 1.33. The visitors can be clinical in front of goal, recording 7 shots on target per match compared with Nacional’s 3; however, their defence has conceded 9 goals in their last five appearances. The hosts’ advantage in game control, with average possession of 59% compared with 54%, combined with a considerably stronger defensive profile, points towards a CD Nacional victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The early-season data strongly point towards goals at both ends: CD Nacional and Estrela Amadora have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Estrela creates more danger, averaging 7 shots on target compared with the hosts’ 3, while its xG stands at 1.33 versus Nacional’s 0.98. At the same time, Nacional’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.85, whereas Estrela has conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match across its last five fixtures. However, the signal is not entirely clear, as Nacional recorded BTTS in only 20% of its last five matches and conceded just 0.6 goals per game. Despite this improvement from the hosts, Estrela’s defensive vulnerability and its 80% BTTS rate in its last five appearances slightly shift the prediction towards a scenario in which both teams score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have scored and conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their league matches so far, with each side exceeding the 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goal lines in 100% of their games. Estrela Amadora pose a greater threat in the final third, averaging 10 shots and as many as 7 on target, compared with Nacional’s 8 shots and 3 on target. However, the hosts’ record over their last five matches has been more conservative, with 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, which is why the 2.5 line remains finely balanced despite 80% of Estrela’s matches going Over this mark. The model projects 1.31 goals for Nacional and 1.30 for Estrela, giving a total of 2.61, so the safest edge is with Over 1.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, while their average first-half goals total is only 1.0 each. However, CD Nacional are showing clearly better current form: they are averaging 1.6 points per game compared with Estrela’s 0.8, have won 40% of their last five matches, while the visitors have not won any. After the break, the hosts have conceded no goals on average in their last five matches and kept a clean sheet in the second half in 100% of those games, whereas Estrela concede an average of 1.4 goals after half-time. Nacional’s advantage is also supported defensively, as they have conceded an average of 0.6 goals per match across their last five games, compared with 1.8 for the visitors. The most logical scenario is therefore a cautious, level first half, followed by the hosts exploiting Estrela’s defensive weakness and winning the match.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| CD Nacional | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 19% | 56% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.57 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
CD Nacional is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.33 pts / match - CD Nacional · 1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estrela Amadora is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - CD Nacional · 2 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
CD Nacional is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - CD Nacional · 2 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
CD Nacional scores in 67% of matches (2 of 3 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
Estrela Amadora scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 33% (1 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - CD Nacional
Over / Under - Estrela Amadora
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Estrela Amadora is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.67 pts / match - CD Nacional · 1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CD Nacional - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Concedes 2.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 goal | 67% | 33% |
| 2 goals | 33% | 33% |
| 3 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 33% | 100% |
| No goal | 67% | 67% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 0% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
CD Nacional
Estrela Amadora
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| CD Nacional | Liga | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.33 | 2.82 | ▲ 4.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 43% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 50% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 29% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 71% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 33% | 71% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): CD Nacional 1 - 1 - 0 Estrela Amadora. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora?
The Liga NOS match finished CD Nacional 2:3 Estrela Amadora. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between CD Nacional and Estrela Amadora?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches CD Nacional won 1, Estrela Amadora won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora?
CD Nacional score 1.33 goals per game on average and Estrela Amadora 2.00. The Liga NOS average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 33% of CD Nacional's matches and 100% of Estrela Amadora's.
What form are CD Nacional and Estrela Amadora in?
Over the last 5 games CD Nacional have a 1-1-1 record (1.33 points per game) and Estrela Amadora 0-2-0 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CD Nacional vs Estrela Amadora?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.