CD Nacional vs Rio Ave FC: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a close contest leaning towards a draw. CD Nacional shows poor home form with only 25% won matches at home and a -5 goal difference, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per match. Rio Ave FC draws in as many as 56% of cases in away matches, which is their dominant result on the road. Both teams have identical shot conversion rates (14%) and similar ball possession (46% vs 45%). The form of both teams in the last 5 matches is unsatisfactory (1.0 vs 0.8 points per match), which further argues for a split of points. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the hosts (1.24 vs 1.05), but Rio Ave's away history indicates their ability to avoid defeat through frequent draws.
CD Nacional vs Rio Ave FC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
CD Nacional played Rio Ave FC in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 25 January 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
CD Nacional: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Rio Ave FC: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
CD Nacional scores 1.22 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Rio Ave FC scores 1.22 and concedes 1.72. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: CD Nacional 67%, Rio Ave FC 61%. Over 2.5: CD Nacional 50%, Rio Ave FC 61%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
CD Nacional has higher xG: 1.30 vs 1.04. CD Nacional: 11.8 shots per match, Rio Ave FC: 9.2.
Match halves
CD Nacional: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.67. Rio Ave FC: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
CD Nacional: 31-45+ (5 goals). Rio Ave FC: 61-75 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a close contest leaning towards a draw. CD Nacional shows poor home form with only 25% won matches at home and a -5 goal difference, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per match. Rio Ave FC draws in as many as 56% of cases in away matches, which is their dominant result on the road. Both teams have identical shot conversion rates (14%) and similar ball possession (46% vs 45%). The form of both teams in the last 5 matches is unsatisfactory (1.0 vs 0.8 points per match), which further argues for a split of points. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the hosts (1.24 vs 1.05), but Rio Ave's away history indicates their ability to avoid defeat through frequent draws.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| CD Nacional | Rio Ave FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
CD Nacional is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - CD Nacional · 0.8 pts / match - Rio Ave FC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Nacional is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - CD Nacional · 1.72 goals / match - Rio Ave FC
CD Nacional scores in 78% of matches (14 of 18 matches), while Rio Ave FC keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
Rio Ave FC scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - CD Nacional
Over / Under - Rio Ave FC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CD Nacional is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - CD Nacional · 1.17 pts / match - Rio Ave FC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CD Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Rio Ave FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
CD Nacional
Rio Ave FC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| CD Nacional | Liga | Rio Ave FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.78 | 2.73 | ▲ 2.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 46% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 53% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 30% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | • 72% | 72% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 72% | 77% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: CD Nacional 0 - 1 - 0 Rio Ave FC. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of CD Nacional vs Rio Ave FC?
The Liga NOS match finished CD Nacional 4:0 Rio Ave FC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before CD Nacional vs Rio Ave FC?
CD Nacional score 1.22 goals per game on average and Rio Ave FC 1.22. The Liga NOS average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 67% of CD Nacional's matches and 61% of Rio Ave FC's.
What form are CD Nacional and Rio Ave FC in?
Over the last 5 games CD Nacional have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Rio Ave FC 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CD Nacional vs Rio Ave FC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for CD Nacional vs Rio Ave FC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.