CD Tenerife vs Almería: match statistics

Almería head into the match in clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 games and scored 10 goals in that run, while Tenerife recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 goals. The strongest argument in favour of the visitors is their defensive solidity, having conceded just 1 goal in their last five matches, compared with 5 conceded by the hosts. Almería also have a higher average points tally from the last five rounds: 2.4 compared with Tenerife’s 1.4. Both teams won their only league matches so far by 3:1 and 3:0 respectively, but Almería’s second-place standing and run of 4 consecutive wins suggest greater consistency. Tenerife may benefit from home advantage, but the visitors’ edge in current attacking efficiency and defensive organisation makes an Almería victory the preferred outcome.

The BTTS signal is mixed, but it leans slightly more strongly towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. Almería have averaged 2.0 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while conceding just 0.2 goals per game—only 1 goal across the entire period; despite this, BTTS landed in 0% of their matches. Tenerife have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, but their attacking average stands at 1.6 goals, while Almería’s defence restricts opponents to an xG of only 1.15. The hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.0 goal, with an xG against of 1.29, so Almería have credible arguments for finding the net; however, their highly solid defence increases the likelihood of a result such as 0:1 or 0:2. Additionally, the league-average BTTS rate is only 45%, supporting the cautious BTTS - No selection.

The last five-match record points to a game with a more moderate goal tally: Tenerife averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Almería scored 2.0 goals and conceded just 0.2. At the same time, the quality of the chances created is lower than the results alone suggest, with average xG from the last five matches standing at 1.05 for Tenerife and 1.25 for Almería. Almería has won four of its last five matches and conceded only 1 goal during that period, which limits the prospects of a high-scoring performance from the hosts. None of the visitors’ last five matches saw both teams score, and only 40% of their matches went over the 2.5-goal line. The projected total of 2.30 goals clearly favors Under 3.5, as at least four goals would be required despite Almería’s very tight recent defensive record.

Almería are in clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and conceding just 0.2, while Tenerife have recorded 2 wins and 2 defeats over the same period. The visitors were level at half-time in 80% of their recent matches and did not trail in any of them after 45 minutes, strongly supporting the Half-Time draw outcome. After the break, Almería score an average of 1.4 goals per match compared with Tenerife’s 0.33, while the hosts concede an average of 0.67 goals in this period. Tenerife do have an advantage in the early stages of matches, leading at the break in 67% of their recent games, but Almería’s stronger second-half performance and significantly better run make the X/2 scenario the most likely.