CD Tenerife vs Girona FC: match statistics

Girona go into the match in 4th place in the table, while CD Tenerife sit 12th. In their last five matches, the visitors have recorded 3 wins, compared with just 1 for the hosts. The difference is also clear defensively: Girona have conceded 3 goals in that period, while Tenerife have let in 10. Away from home, the visitors average 1.67 goals and 4.33 shots on target per match, while Tenerife average 1 goal and 3.25 shots on target at home. However, the hosts are not without a chance: they concede an average of just 0.5 goals at home, and their xG is 1.31, compared with the 1.72 xG Girona allow away from home. The visitors’ stronger recent form and attacking efficiency point towards a win, although Tenerife’s solid home defence should limit Girona’s advantage.

BTTS was recorded in 60% of Tenerife’s matches and 67% of Girona’s, meaning both teams exceeded the league average of 49%. Girona averaged 1.67 goals per match and failed to score in none of its games, while Tenerife averaged 1.8 goals at home with an xG of 1.83. The hosts’ chances of finding the net are boosted by the fact that their opponents allowed chances worth an average of 1.72 xG, while Girona could exploit a Tenerife defence that conceded an average of 2 goals over its last 5 matches. Caution is warranted, however, as Girona conceded only 3 goals in its last 5 games, with BTTS landing in 40% of those matches. Even so, the season-long scoring indicators and the effectiveness of both attacks point towards BTTS - Yes, with each side expected to score.

The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 80% of Tenerife's matches and 100% of Girona's. Tenerife average 1.8 goals, while Girona average 1.67, so both teams have the potential to bring the match close to this line. The hosts post an xG of 1.83, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.72, strengthening the case for a Tenerife goal. At the same time, Over 3.5 goals landed in only 20% of the hosts' matches and in none of the visitors' matches, making higher lines less compelling. The projected total of 2.63 goals points to value on Over 1.5 goals, although it does not guarantee a high-scoring game.

The strongest signal in favour of Girona leading at the break is its recent form: it was ahead after 45 minutes in 4 of its last 5 matches, while Tenerife had been trailing at half-time twice over the same period. Girona scored an average of 1.2 first-half goals in those matches and conceded none, increasing the likelihood of an early lead. Their ability to hold onto that advantage is supported by the difference in recent results: Girona won 3 of its last 5 matches and conceded an average of 0.6 goals, while Tenerife won just once and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. However, the 2/2 pick is not a certainty, as Tenerife have yet to concede a first-half goal at home, and their average xG is 1.83 compared with Girona’s 1.30 away from home. Despite this caveat, the visitors’ stronger current form makes them leading both at half-time and at the final whistle the single most likely scenario in the HT/FT market.