CD Trofense vs Leça: match statistics

CD Trofense have a slight home advantage: in their matches on home soil so far, they have averaged 0.5 goals scored and conceded just 0.5, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of games. Leça do average 1.0 goals away from home, but they also concede 1.5, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any away match. The visitors create more offensively, averaging 10 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game compared with Trofense’s 7.5 and 1.5, respectively, but their defence allows opponents a high xG of 2.26. The hosts are also in poor recent form, conceding 8 goals in their last five matches, but Leça have conceded the same 8 goals over that period and have won just 1 of their last five games. Given both teams’ low scoring efficiency and Trofense’s stronger defensive numbers at home, a narrow home win is the most likely outcome.

The scenario in which one of the teams fails to score has a slight edge, primarily due to Trofense’s poor finishing: the hosts have averaged just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches, while both teams scored in only 20% of those games. Leça presents a more promising attacking profile, with a recent BTTS rate of 60% and an average xG of 1.58 over five matches, compared with 0.88 for Trofense. The hosts can still find the net, having produced a seasonal xG of 1.79, while Leça’s defense has allowed opponents an average of 2.26 xG and has not kept a single clean sheet. Nevertheless, Trofense has converted only 4% of its shots into goals, averaging 0.5 goals scored this season, which significantly increases the risk that they will fail to capitalize on their creative advantage. Additionally, the league’s BTTS rate stands at just 43%, so the “No” pick is marginally stronger than the Goal/Goal option.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: the hosts score an average of 0.5 goals, while the visitors score 1.0, despite both defenses conceding 2.0 and 1.5 goals per match, respectively. In their last five appearances, Trofense scored just 0.4 goals per game, while Leça scored 0.8, with both teams conceding an average of 1.6 goals. The hosts’ attacking potential is boosted by an xG of 1.79 and 6.5 shots on target per match, but their conversion rate is only 4%, while their current xG over the last five matches stands at just 0.88. The 3.5 line is further supported by the fact that none of the matches played by either team so far has produced more than 3 goals, while the league-wide average is 2.33 goals. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the projected 2.34 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals.

Leça have a clearly stronger first-half profile: they score an average of 1.0 goal before the break, while Trofense have yet to score any, and the hosts have been trailing at half-time in 100% of their matches so far. The visitors were leading after 45 minutes in 50% of their games and had not been losing at that stage in any of them, whereas Trofense conceded an average of 1.0 goal before the break. In their last five matches, Leça have also taken the lead at half-time more often—40% compared with 0% for the hosts—while Trofense scored just 0.2 goals in the first halves. Over the full match, the visitors average 1.5 points per game compared with Trofense’s 0.5, and score 1.0 goal per match versus just 0.5 for the hosts. Although Trofense’s xG stands at 1.79 compared with Leça’s 1.21, the hosts convert only 4% of their shots and concede an average of 2.0 goals. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario remains a lead at the break followed by a win for the visitors.