CDS Tampico Madero vs Atlético Zacatepec: match statistics

CDS Tampico Madero have looked very solid defensively at home: they have kept a clean sheet in all of their home matches so far, while their opponents average 0.00 goals. The hosts score an average of 1.50 goals at home, registering 3.5 shots on target per match with a 14% conversion rate, whereas Zacatepec average just one goal away from home. The visitors do create slightly more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.27 compared with 1.12 for the hosts, but they also allow opponents very good opportunities worth as much as 2.02 xG per match. Atlético Zacatepec have the better record over their last five matches, with 3 wins, but they have lost half of their away fixtures and concede an average of 1.50 goals. Home advantage and a clearly tighter defence point towards a narrow Tampico Madero victory.

The strongest signal against BTTS is that both teams have recorded 0% of matches with goals scored by both sides this season, compared with a league average of 45%. Both Tampico Madero and Atlético Zacatepec have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and failed to score in 50%, clearly increasing the risk that at least one team will once again fail to find the net. In their last five matches, BTTS occurred for both teams in only 20% of cases, despite the hosts averaging 1.4 goals and the visitors 1.2. Tampico Madero does, however, have a solid defensive foundation, with opponents' xG at 0.70, while Zacatepec averages only 2 shots on target per match, making a goal for the visitors particularly unlikely. The hosts create more chances, with an xG of 1.72 and 4 shots on target per game, but their conversion rate is just 3%. Therefore, the more realistic scenario is that only one team scores rather than both teams finding the net. In betting terms, BTTS - No is the stronger option: it means that at least one team will fail to score, not automatically a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal is the low-scoring profile around the 3.5-goal line: both teams have finished below this mark in 100% of their league matches so far. Tampico have averaged just 0.5 goals per match, while Zacatepec have averaged 1.0, with both teams keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances. The last five matches show the hosts scoring and conceding 1.4 goals on average, compared with 1.2 for the visitors; however, only 20% of those matches involving either team saw both sides score. The hosts’ potential is boosted by an xG of 1.72 and 15 shots per match, but the visitors create just 2 shots on target on average, while Tampico’s defense allows only 0.70 xG. The projected total of 2.20 goals remains clearly below the 3.5-goal line, making Under 3.5 the strongest value despite the league average of 3.13 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CDS Tampico Madero win at full-time. Atlético Zacatepec were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, and according to the season data, they went into half-time level in all two of their away matches. However, the hosts have a clear edge in chance quality: their average xG is 1.72 compared with the visitors’ 1.27, while the opposition allows an average xG of 2.02. Tampico also registers more shots on target, averaging 4.0 compared with Zacatepec’s 2.0, which should improve their chances of deciding the match after a cautious opening. After the break, the hosts have yet to concede in the analysed sample, whereas the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals during that period. Therefore, the X/1 HT/FT outcome is the most justified.