CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango: match statistics

CDS Tampico Madero have avoided defeat in each of their last five home matches, winning three and drawing two, although they have recorded just one win in their last five games overall. Durango have been in better recent form, winning three of their last five matches while scoring 8 goals and conceding 4; during the same period, the hosts scored 7 and conceded 11. However, Tampico’s home scoring efficiency works in their favour: they average 2 goals per game and convert 16% of their shots, compared with Durango’s 0.5 goals and 4% conversion rate away from home. The quality of chances created is similar, with the hosts’ home xG at 1.38 and the visitors’ away xG at 1.34; however, Durango have failed to score in half of their away matches. The visitors’ solid away defence, conceding an average of 0.5 goals, limits Tampico’s advantage, but the hosts’ home record gives them a slight edge in this prediction.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Durango’s away matches: BTTS has landed in 0% of those games, and the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away appearances. They average just 0.5 goals and 2.33 shots on target per match away from home, while Tampico Madero average 1.6 goals and 4.6 shots on target at home. In addition, Durango have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches, which also limits the hosts’ chances of scoring. Recent form weighs against the No pick: Durango averaged 1.6 goals across their last five matches, while Tampico Madero conceded 2.2, so the edge for this scenario is moderate. Despite the visitors’ improved attack, their away scoring record and the fact that none of their away matches have seen both teams score tip the assessment toward BTTS - No.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of Durango’s matches, and in 80% of Tampico Madero’s matches. Away from home, Durango scores and concedes an average of 0.5 goals, although its xG of 1.34 suggests greater attacking potential than its results indicate. At home, Tampico Madero scores and concedes an average of 1.6 goals, making the lower Under 2.5 line less reliable—it has been exceeded in 60% of its home matches. Durango averaged 1.6 goals scored across its last five matches, so I do not expect the visitors to be completely shut out. However, the forecast of 2.30 total goals points more clearly to Under 3.5 than to any of the other lines.

A draw at half-time looks likely: Durango were level at the break in 67% of their away matches and did not score a single first-half goal in those games. Tampico also went into half-time level in 4 of their last 5 matches overall, although they led at the break in 40% of their home games. After the interval, the advantage could shift to the visitors: across their last 5 matches, Tampico conceded an average of 2.0 goals in the second half and lost that period 4 times, while Durango averaged 1.0 goal in the second half and did not lose it once. Durango won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for Tampico, strengthening the case for an away win despite the hosts' slightly higher xG—1.52 versus 1.34. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a Durango win is the strongest HT/FT signal, although the hosts' ability to score before the break remains a significant risk.