CDS Tampico Madero vs Morelia: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). CDS Tampico Madero win 69% of home matches and average 1.75 goals while conceding only 0.88 per game, providing clear defensive strengths and efficiency in front of their crowd. This season the home side have 17 wins and a goal difference of 45:32, whereas Morelia have 13 wins and a 42:35 record; away, Morelia average just 1.2 goals and concede 1.53 per match. Tampico produce 14.38 shots and 4.31 on target at home with an xG of 1.5, while Morelia on the road record 10.33 shots, 4.13 on target and xG 1.3, indicating a home advantage both in quantity and quality of chances. Defensively the gap is significant — hosts allow 0.94 xG against at home versus 1.6 xG conceded by Morelia away, and the difference in goal balance (+14 for the hosts vs -5 for the visitors) supports Tampico being favored, despite both teams averaging 1.8 points per game in their last 5 matches.

I project BTTS - Yes. xG comparisons clearly indicate scoring potential from both sides: Tampico posts 1.84 xG per match against Morelia’s defense conceding 1.60 xG, while Morelia generates 1.30 xG versus Tampico’s defense allowing 1.03 xG. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the home side recorded BTTS in 80% of games and the visitors in 40%, with average goals in the last 5 equal at 1.4 each and average goals conceded 0.8 for the hosts and 1.2 for Morelia. Counter signals include the hosts’ season-long 50% clean sheet rate and Tampico’s season BTTS rate of only 38%, but the league average is 56% BTTS and the visitors concede 1.53 goals on the season, so the risk of goals at both ends remains high. Overall I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35%, since the xG comparisons (1.84 vs 1.60 and 1.30 vs 1.03) and recent home form outweigh the season-long clean sheet figure.

The xG- and averages-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for the home side (xG for attack 1.84 vs opponent’s conceded average 1.60) and 1.17 for Morelia (xG for attack 1.30 vs home conceded average 1.03), totaling 2.89 goals. Both teams have a high share of matches above 1.5 goals: home 63% and away 87%, therefore I estimate ~78% probability for Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is more balanced — season Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Tampico and 53% for Morelia, and the model gives ~55% for Over 2.5, i.e. a moderate signal. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (seasonally 25%/20%, model ~33%), so Under 3.5 at 67% is a safer pick at the higher line. Additionally, the home team generates more chances (avg. 16.31 shots and 5.88 on target vs 10.33 and 4.13 for Morelia) and have better defense (conceded avg. 0.75 vs 1.53 for Morelia), which reinforces the edge for Over 1.5 at moderate risk.

I assess HT/FT 1/1 as the strongest scenario: the home team wins 56% of matches at home while Morelia has only 27% wins, and average goals are 1.5 (Tampico) versus 1.2 (Morelia). The home side generates more chances — on average 16.31 shots and 5.88 on target with an xG of 1.84, compared to 10.33 shots, 4.13 on target and xG 1.3 for the visitors — which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. First-half statistics show the hosts lead at half-time in 38% of matches, and in the last five fixtures they led in 3 of 5 (60%), conceding on average only 0.25 goals by half-time versus 0.93 for Morelia. After the break the home team scores an average of 0.81 goals and records clean sheets in 63% of second halves; they have also scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90, which favors maintaining and extending their advantage to full-time.