CDS Tampico Madero vs Venados: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). CDS Tampico Madero has recorded 16 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses this season, and at home they win 73% of matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game with a +14 home goal difference. Venados have 8 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses this season; away they have won only 17% of matches, lose 83%, concede 2.33 goals on average and have a -13 goal difference, with 0% clean sheets and 58% of away matches without scoring. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts average 1.6 pts per game (2W-2D-1L; 6 scored, 3 conceded), while Venados average 0.6 pts (1W-4L; 5 scored, 8 conceded), confirming the form advantage. Additionally, the hosts generate home xG 1.50 and register on average 4.33 shots on target from 14.53 attempts, whereas the visitors have away xG 1.27 and 3.92 shots on target, indicating a clear advantage in quality of chances for the home side.

Venados average 1.25 goals per game this season and fail to score in 58% of matches, which significantly limits BTTS chances. CDS Tampico Madero score 2.62 goals per home game and 77% of their home matches have been Goal/Goal; the home side has xG 1.65 per game versus 1.79 xG conceded by Venados, so they will create opportunities. However, the visitors have a low shot conversion rate of 12% and in the last 5 games averaged only 1.0 goal while conceding 1.6, whereas the hosts have conceded just 0.6 in that period, which reduces the likelihood of a Venados response. Season-long indicators diverge: Tampico have BTTS at 77% versus 42% for Venados, and the league BTTS average is 56%, producing mixed signals but favoring the visitors not scoring. Based on this I estimate BTTS - Yes at 40% and BTTS - No at 60%, therefore I recommend 'No Goal'.

Forecast based on xG and statistics: home attack xG 1.65 and Venados defensive xG 1.79 yield an estimated 1.72 goals for Tampico Madero; conversely 1.27 xG for Venados and 1.56 home defensive xG yield 1.42 goals for the visitors, totaling 3.14 expected goals. Tampico Madero scores on average 2.62 goals per match with 5.92 shots on target, Venados has 1.25 goals with 3.92 shots on target and concedes 2.33 goals on average, which favors a higher-scoring scenario. Seasonally the home side has 85% of matches over 1.5 and 69% over 2.5, the visitors 67% and 50% respectively, and the league average is 2.91 goals per match, so at least two goals are very likely. In the last 5 matches Tampico scored 6 and conceded 3 goals, Venados scored 5 and conceded 8, and Venados has 0% clean sheets this season, increasing the goal risk. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (approx. 82%), while Over 2.5 also has solid chances (~68%).

CDS Tampico Madero appears the clear favorite: they average 2.62 goals per match versus Venados’ 1.25, have a higher xG (1.65 vs 1.27) and record more shots (14.0 vs 10.75) and shots on target (5.92 vs 3.92). At half-time the home side averages 1.23 goals and the visitors 0.50, and Tampico led at the break in 6 of 13 home matches (46%) compared with only 1 HT lead for Venados (8%). The home side has a 46% win rate this season (about 6 of 13), which relative to the 6 HT leads suggests that leads at the break often convert to victory — roughly 5 of 6 such cases, hence the HT/FT 1/1 receives the highest probability (~38%). Additionally, the home team’s shot conversion rate of 19% versus the visitors’ 12%, together with the advantage in xG and shots on target, increases the likelihood that Tampico will maintain their lead in the second half. In a risk-split I assigned supplementary probabilities for HT/FT draws (23% for X/X) and several equalizing scenarios, while outcomes favorable to Venados are unlikely given the visitors’ 17% win rate and average points of 0.5.