CE Sabadell FC vs Almería: match statistics

Sabadell have won only once in their last five matches, but have also lost just one game, while three draws highlight their strong ability to maintain balanced results. Their defence conceded only 2 goals during this period, while the team scored 5, supporting a low-scoring scenario. Almería have a stronger record over their last five matches, with 3 wins and 9 goals scored, but they lost their only away game so far and failed to score despite having 61% possession. Away from home, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.03 xG, but allow opponents 1.44 xG, meaning their quality advantage is far from clear. Given Sabadell’s solid recent defensive record and Almería’s uncertain attacking efficiency away from home, a draw is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal is the 0% BTTS rate for both teams in the season data, while over their last five matches it stands at just 20% for Sabadell and 0% for Almería. Sabadell kept a clean sheet in 100% of the specified home fixtures, while Almería failed to score in any of them and averaged just 1 shot on target per match. Current defensive form also supports a No Goal scenario for at least one side: both teams have conceded an average of only 0.4 goals per game over their last five appearances. Almería does average 1.8 goals across its five most recent matches, but its xG is 1.24 compared with the 0.86 xG allowed by Sabadell, limiting the visitors’ chances of breaking down the hosts. The BTTS - No pick is further supported by the league average of 41%, making it more likely that at least one team will finish the match without scoring.

Data from the last five matches points to very solid defenses: Sabadell have conceded an average of 0.4 goals, while Almería have also conceded just 0.4. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.0 goal scored with an xG of 0.89, whereas the visitors averaged 1.8 goals, although their matches generated a relatively limited attacking potential of 1.24 xG on average. Over 2.5 goals landed in just 20% of Sabadell’s last five matches and 40% of Almería’s, compared with a league average of 41%. In addition, the two teams conceded only 4 goals combined across their last five matches, while both teams scored in just 20% of Sabadell’s matches and 0% of Almería’s. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore holds a clear edge, as the projected total of 1.75 goals remains well below the four-goal threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at the final whistle, as both teams were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. During this period, Sabadell scored just 0.2 goals per match before half-time and conceded 0.2, while Almería recorded 0.6 and 0.2 respectively, pointing to a cautious, low-scoring start. The hosts drew 3 of their last 5 matches, while their average goals conceded was only 0.4, suggesting they are capable of keeping the score level. Almería have shown greater overall attacking efficiency across their last five appearances, scoring 1.8 goals per match compared with Sabadell’s 1.0, so the HT/FT draw/away win scenario remains a significant alternative. However, the hosts’ advantage in the season data, consisting of 3 goals scored and a clean sheet, is based on a very small sample, so greater weight should be given to their current profile of level first halves.