Ceará vs Fortaleza: match statistics
Ceará vs Fortaleza: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ceará played Fortaleza in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Ceará: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Fortaleza: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ceará scores 1.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Fortaleza scores 1.25 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ceará 38%, Fortaleza 38%. Over 2.5: Ceará 13%, Fortaleza 50%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
Ceará has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.31. Ceará: 14.4 shots per match, Fortaleza: 12.8.
Match halves
Ceará: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50. Fortaleza: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Ceará: 0-15 (2 goals). Fortaleza: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.20 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ceará has a clear advantage in chance creation at home — averaging 17.75 shots and 6.25 shots on target per match, translating to 1.25 goals per game and xG 1.99. Fortaleza away averages 11.25 shots and only 2.5 on target, with just 0.25 goals per away match and xG 1.14, and in 75% of their away fixtures they fail to score. Defensively the visitors formally have 75% clean sheets and concede 1.00 goal per away match on average, but their away xG Against is 1.76, whereas Ceará at home has xG Against 1.04 and actual concessions of 1.25 goals, suggesting the hosts create better-quality chances. In overall form Fortaleza have 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 (PPG 2.2), while Ceará have 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 (PPG 1.2), so the visitors are point-efficient but lack goals on the road. Considering Ceará’s higher xG and greater shot volume (1.99 and 6.25 SOT vs 1.14 and 2.5 SOT) and the high share of Fortaleza’s goalless away matches, I forecast a home win with a low-scoring margin.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I lean towards 'No' — Fortaleza has a seasonal BTTS rate of 0% and keeps a clean sheet in 75% of matches, with an away goals average of only 0.25, which greatly reduces the likelihood of the visitors scoring. Ceará offers a strong home attack: seasonal goals average 2.25, xG_for 1.47, averaging 14.25 shots and 4.75 shots on target with a conversion rate of 16%, so the hosts are likely to score. In the last 5 fixtures both teams scored in 40% of cases, while Fortaleza scored 8 and conceded 2 in that period (1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded on average), indicating good short-term defense from the visitors. Considering Fortaleza's seasonal clean sheet rate of 75% vs Ceará's 25% and the very low seasonal away goals average of 0.25, I favor the no-BTTS scenario, hence a 60% allocation to 'No' and 40% to 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model and match data indicate total expected goals around 2.71: Ceará ~1.62 and Fortaleza ~1.09 (calculated as team xG and opponent-allowed xG — Ceará xG_attack 1.47 vs Fortaleza xG_conceded 1.76; Fortaleza xG_attack 1.14 vs Ceará xG_conceded 1.04). Ceará averages 2.25 goals per game, produces 14.25 shots with 4.75 on target and a 16% conversion rate, while Fortaleza this season averages 0.25 goals, 11.25 shots and 2.5 on target with a 2% conversion, indicating a clear quality advantage in chances for the home side. Seasonal stats show Ceará matches finished Over 2.5 goals in 75% of cases, and BTTS at home occurs in 75% of home games; additionally in the last 5 matches Fortaleza scored 8 goals (1.6 avg) and conceded 2 (0.4 avg), maintaining risk of away goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.71 yields ~75% probability for Over 1.5, ~51% for Over 2.5 and ~29% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5. Recommendation: back Over 1.5 — the combination of expected 2.71 goals, higher quality of Ceará’s chances (4.75 on-target shots and 16% conversion) and a 75% share of Over 2.5 at home provides an edge versus the under.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 (Ceará leads at the break and wins) because the home side have led at half-time in 50% of matches and score on average 1.0 goal before the break versus 0.0 for Fortaleza, strongly favoring the hosts’ start. Over the full match Ceará averages 2.25 goals and have won 75% of games, while Fortaleza average only 0.25 goals per match and have 25% wins, so a home win at full-time is the most likely outcome. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.47 versus 1.14 for the visitors, Ceará register 4.75 shots on target compared to 2.5 for Fortaleza and have a conversion rate of 16% versus 2%, indicating a qualitative and efficiency advantage in scoring. Ceará also tend to open the scoring early — they have 1 goal in 0–15 minutes and 2 goals in 16–30 minutes — and higher half-time points (7 versus 3) with an average half-time points of 1.75 vs 0.75, confirming their lead-before-the-break superiority. Therefore I assigned the 1/1 scenario a 48% probability; other draw or turnaround scenarios I rate collectively as less likely, reflecting the hosts’ shooting advantage.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ceará | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fortaleza is 120% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Ceará · 2.2 pts / match - Fortaleza
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fortaleza is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Ceará · 1.25 goals / match - Fortaleza
Ceará scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Fortaleza keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
Fortaleza scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while Ceará keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ceará
Over / Under - Fortaleza
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ceará is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Ceará · 1.25 pts / match - Fortaleza
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ceará - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Fortaleza - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ceará
Fortaleza
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Ceará | Liga | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.20 | • 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 48% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 13% | 41% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 34% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 38% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 73% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Ceará 1 - 1 - 0 Fortaleza. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ceará vs Fortaleza?
The Serie B match finished Ceará 2:1 Fortaleza. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceará and Fortaleza?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1, Fortaleza won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ceará vs Fortaleza?
Ceará score 1.00 goals per game on average and Fortaleza 1.25. The Serie B average is 2.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Ceará's matches and 38% of Fortaleza's.
What form are Ceará and Fortaleza in?
Over the last 5 games Ceará have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Fortaleza 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ceará vs Fortaleza?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.