Čelik vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

Čelik have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 2.00 goals per match, compared with Radnik Bijeljina’s away average of just 0.67. The hosts also create slightly higher-quality chances, as reflected in their average xG of 1.57 versus the visitors’ 1.34, while they register 15 shots per game compared with their opponents’ 12.33. Radnik have failed to win any of their 6 matches this season, and in their last five recorded 3 defeats while conceding as many as 12 goals. Čelik have also lacked consistency, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last five matches, but they have won 50% of their home fixtures and have never failed to score at home. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Radnik have drawn 67% of their away matches, but the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and finishing points towards result 1.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear: Čelik recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches so far, while Radnik Bijeljina did so in 67%, compared with the league average of 54%. In their last five matches, Radnik recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of games and conceded an average of 2.4 goals, which should create favorable conditions for Čelik to score. The hosts have not kept a single clean sheet this season, and their average xG against stands at 1.53, while Radnik creates an average of 1.34 xG. Čelik scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.4 per game across their last five matches, while the visitors also averaged 1.2 goals per match, making BTTS - Yes the most likely scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Čelik has exceeded this line in all of their home matches to date, while Radnik has done so in 67% of away fixtures. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.2 goals scored, whereas Radnik conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game, significantly increasing the hosts’ attacking potential. The xG metrics also point to an open game: Čelik averages 1.41 xG, Radnik 1.34 xG, while their average xG against stands at 1.53 and 1.49, respectively. Čelik have kept a clean sheet in none of their home matches, while both teams scored in 100% of Čelik’s fixtures and 67% of Radnik’s matches. The Over 2.5 line also has positive indicators, particularly after 60% of such results for Čelik and 80% for Radnik in their last five appearances; however, Over 1.5 remains a considerably safer signal.

Čelik shows a clearer first-half signal: they led at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, scoring an average of 1.00 goals before half-time, while Radnik were level at half-time in all 3 away matches and scored just 0.33 goals per game in those fixtures. The hosts create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.41 compared with the opponents’ 1.34, and also register 3.67 shots on target per match versus Radnik’s 3.00. The biggest risk to the pick is Čelik’s very weak defence, conceding an average of 3.00 goals at home, including 2.33 after the break. Nevertheless, Radnik have failed to win any of their last 5 matches, average only 0.4 points per game, and concede an average of 1.8 goals after half-time. The scenario in which Čelik lead at the break and maintain their advantage until full-time is therefore the most frequent single outcome, although the hosts’ high vulnerability to conceding goals limits confidence in it.