Celta de Vigo II vs SD Eibar: match statistics

Celta de Vigo II have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while Eibar have netted 7 during the same period, and the hosts average 11 shots and 6 on target per home game. The Vigo side’s record across their last five outings stands at 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat—identical to the visitors’—but their home attack averages 2.5 goals per match. Eibar are currently second in the table and have won all of their away matches so far without conceding, but their away xG is just 0.47, compared with 2.86 xG conceded to opponents, pointing to a very fragile results-over-performance advantage. Celta have yet to keep a clean sheet at home and concede an average of 2 goals, making a goal for the visitors a realistic possibility. However, the hosts’ superiority in chance creation points to a narrow home win.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by the season data: Celta de Vigo II have seen this scenario in 33% of matches, while SD Eibar have recorded it in 0%, compared with a league average of 39%. Eibar have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their current away matches and concede an average of 0.0 goals, which significantly limits the hosts’ chances despite their average of 1.67 goals scored. However, the visitors have weak attacking potential away from home, generating just 0.47 xG, taking 4.0 shots and only 1.0 shot on target per match. Recent form increases the risk of both teams scoring, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Celta’s and 40% of Eibar’s last five matches, but the clean-sheet record and the visitors’ very low away xG still slightly favor the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

Celta de Vigo II average 1.67 goals at home and allow 5.33 shots on target per match, so the hosts should create the majority of the scoring chances. However, SD Eibar have very limited attacking output away from home: averaging 1.00 goal, 4.00 shots and just 1.00 shot on target, which reduces the likelihood of an open game. In the current data for both teams, none of their matches has exceeded the 3.5-goal line, while the league average is only 2.27 goals. The last five matches have been slightly more goal-heavy, but the Over 2.5 rate stands at 60% for Celta and 40% for Eibar, while the projected total of 2.40 goals still clearly supports Under 3.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Celta de Vigo II win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, or 60% of the time. The hosts are significantly more effective after the break: across their last five matches, they have averaged 1.8 goals in the second half, compared with just 0.6 for Eibar. Celta also create considerably more chances, recording an average xG of 1.55 and 5.33 shots on target per match, versus only 0.47 xG and 1.0 shots on target for the visitors. Eibar’s defence has been on a run of clean sheets, but the average xG against them stands at as high as 2.86, indicating considerable vulnerability to sustained pressure from the opposition. Celta have averaged 2.2 goals across their last five appearances, compared with Eibar’s 1.4, so their advantage should be most evident after a cautious first half.