Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama: match statistics

Cerezo Osaka are showing significantly stronger current form: they have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches, collecting 13 points. The hosts have scored 15 goals during this period, averaging 3 per game, while Fagiano Okayama have managed just 6. The defensive disparity is equally significant, with Cerezo conceding 6 goals in five matches compared to 9 for the visitors. Okayama have lost 3 of their last 5 fixtures and collected only 4 points, in stark contrast to the hosts’ run. Cerezo’s attacking efficiency, combined with the visitors’ problems at both ends of the pitch, strongly supports a win for the Osaka side.

The latest form clearly favors goals from both teams: BTTS landed in 80% of Cerezo Osaka’s last 5 matches and in 60% of Fagiano Okayama’s games. Cerezo averaged 3.0 goals scored during this period, but also conceded 1.2 per match, giving the visitors a realistic route to finding the net. Okayama averages only 1.2 goals per game, yet its average xG stands at 1.66, while Cerezo allows opponents 1.42 xG. Okayama’s defense looks even weaker, having conceded 9 goals in its last five matches—1.8 per game—with 1.90 xG against them. The most likely scenario is therefore a goal for the hosts and at least one for the visitors, although Okayama’s lower finishing efficiency leaves a significant risk of the BTTS - No outcome.

Cerezo Osaka have scored as many as 15 goals in their last five matches, averaging 3.0 per game, while Fagiano Okayama have conceded 9 goals during that period, an average of 1.8. The hosts created chances worth an average of 1.62 xG, while the visitors’ defense allowed opponents 1.90 xG, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. Okayama also generated 1.66 xG per game, compared with Cerezo’s average of 1.42 xG conceded, meaning the visitors have a realistic chance of contributing to a higher scoreline. In Cerezo’s last five matches, Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of cases, while both teams scored in 80% of their games, making Over 1.5 goals the safest and strongest signal.

Cerezo Osaka are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while Fagiano Okayama have lost 3 of their last 5 games and conceded an average of 1.8 goals. The hosts were leading at the break in 80% of their recent appearances, whereas the visitors were trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches. The first-half difference is particularly significant, as Cerezo averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded before the break, compared with Okayama’s respective figures of 0.4 scored and 0.8 conceded. After the interval, Cerezo still maintain a positive goal balance of 1.2 to 0.8, so the most likely scenario remains a home lead at half-time followed by a home win after 90 minutes.