Cerro Largo vs Boston River: match statistics
Cerro Largo vs Boston River: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cerro Largo played Boston River in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 23 May 2026. Venue: Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Cerro Largo: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Boston River: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cerro Largo scores 1.00 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Boston River scores 1.13 and concedes 1.31. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cerro Largo 38%, Boston River 50%. Over 2.5: Cerro Largo 38%, Boston River 44%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Cerro Largo has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.21. Cerro Largo: 9.8 shots per match, Boston River: 9.4.
Match halves
Cerro Largo: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.63. Boston River: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Cerro Largo: 76-90+ (6 goals). Boston River: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Boston River to win (2): the visitors have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, while Cerro Largo managed only 3 in the same period. Boston River collected 9 points in their last 5 matches (1.8 points per game) with a record of 3 wins and 2 losses, whereas Cerro Largo has only 3 points (1 win, 4 losses; 0.6 points per game), clearly indicating superior form for the away side. Home stats favor the hosts in chance quality: at home they average 9.43 shots with 2.71 on target and score 1.29 goals with a shot conversion of 14%, compared to the visitors who on the road register 7.57 shots, 2.43 on target and 0.86 goals (11% conversion). Defensively the hosts concede 1.29 goals at home, while Boston River concede 1.71 away, with very similar xG figures (home xG 1.19 vs. away xG 1.03, and xG conceded 1.57 vs. 1.56), which suggests an open match with offensive momentum favoring the visitors. Consequently I assign Boston River a 50% probability, draw 25% and Cerro Largo 25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from Boston River: in their last 5 matches they have 100% BTTS and score on average 2.4 goals (12 goals in 5 matches), while Cerro Largo in that run has 20% BTTS and scores on average 0.6 goals (3 goals). Over the season Cerro Largo records 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, and Boston River 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded; season BTTS are 44% for the home side and 57% for the away side, and the league has 54% BTTS. Low clean sheet percentages 22% (Cerro Largo) and 14% (Boston River) and average goals conceded in the last 5 matches of 1.2 and 2.0 indicate both teams frequently concede. Cerro Largo generates more chances seasonally (10.78 shots and 4.89 on target) than Boston River (7.57 and 2.43), but recent xG shows an advantage for the visitors: 1.51 vs 0.99, meaning Boston River creates better openings. Considering Boston River’s 100% BTTS in the last 5, the league’s 54% seasonal BTTS and the low clean sheets, I assess BTTS as more likely: 70% yes / 30% no and recommend a 'yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined season xG is 1.34 for Cerro Largo and 1.03 for Boston River (total 2.37). Considering the last 5 matches (xG 0.99 vs 1.51) I project 1.20 goals for the home side and 1.25 for the visitors, total 2.45. A Poisson model with λ=2.45 yields ~70% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~44% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~23% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal metrics confirm this distribution: Over1.5 occurs in 56% of Cerro Largo’s matches and 86% of Boston River’s, while Over2.5 is 44%/43% for home/away; BTTS occurs 44% and 57% respectively. Additionally, Boston River scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game) whereas Cerro Largo only 3 (0.6 per game), and average shots on target are 4.89 vs 2.43, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. For these reasons I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (probability ~70%), while Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 are considerably less certain.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I forecast X/1 – a draw at half-time and a Cerro Largo win by full-time. A half-time draw appears likely because Boston River were level at the break in 71% of their away matches, while Cerro Largo were level at the break in 44% of home games, with low average first-half goals: 0.44 (Cerro Largo) versus 0.29 (Boston River). After the break the advantage should lie with the home side: Cerro Largo average 0.89 goals in second halves and have a +2 second-half goal differential, whereas Boston River average 0.57 goals with a -3 differential and concede on average 1.0 goal after the break. Season-long indicators support the home-win concept – Cerro Largo score 1.33 goals at home with an xG of 1.34 and average 10.78 shots, and accumulate 1.44 points per home match, while Boston River concede 1.71 goals per game, have an xG of 1.03 and only 2.43 shots on target per match. The combination of these figures (a high share of away half-time draws at 71% plus superior second-half stats and a higher shot volume for the hosts) makes the half-time draw / Cerro Largo full-time win scenario the most probable.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cerro Largo | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Boston River is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Cerro Largo · 1.8 pts / match - Boston River
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Boston River is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Cerro Largo · 1.13 goals / match - Boston River
Cerro Largo is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Cerro Largo · 1.31 goals / match - Boston River
Cerro Largo scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Boston River keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
Boston River scores in 63% of matches (10 of 16 matches), while Cerro Largo keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cerro Largo
Over / Under - Boston River
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cerro Largo is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Cerro Largo · 1.13 pts / match - Boston River
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cerro Largo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Boston River - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cerro Largo
Boston River
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Cerro Largo | Liga | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.25 | 2.49 | • 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 54% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 48% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 26% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 72% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 81% | 75% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Cerro Largo 0 - 1 - 2 Boston River. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
The Primera División match finished Cerro Largo 3:0 Boston River. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro Largo and Boston River?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 0, Boston River won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
Cerro Largo score 1.00 goals per game on average and Boston River 1.13. The Primera División average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Cerro Largo's matches and 50% of Boston River's.
What form are Cerro Largo and Boston River in?
Over the last 5 games Cerro Largo have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Boston River 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cerro Largo vs Boston River?
The statistical background for Cerro Largo vs Boston River — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.