Cerro Largo vs Danubio: match statistics
Cerro Largo vs Danubio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cerro Largo played Danubio in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 30 March 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Cerro Largo: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Danubio: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cerro Largo scores 1.00 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Danubio scores 1.38 and concedes 1.25. League average: 2.34 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cerro Largo 38%, Danubio 50%. Over 2.5: Cerro Largo 50%, Danubio 50%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Cerro Largo has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.20. Cerro Largo: 9.5 shots per match, Danubio: 8.5.
Match halves
Cerro Largo: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75. Danubio: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Cerro Largo: 76-90+ (4 goals). Danubio: 61-75 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.34 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 0.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I tip a home win (Cerro Largo). Cerro Largo average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home with xG 1.25 and 9.67 shots per match, offering better efficiency than the visitors. Danubio average only 0.75 goals away, have higher xG against (1.77) and fewer shots (6.75), indicating limited away attacking power. Both teams have similar PPG and mixed last-5 forms, but the hosts’ offensive and conversion advantage make them favorites. A draw is possible given defensive instability on both sides.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Moderately high BTTS probability: Cerro Largo has strong offensive metrics (seasonScoredAVG 2.0, xG_for 1.46, SOT 5.25), while Danubio, despite low seasonal scoring (0.75), shows form in last 5 (gf_last5_away 8, last5 xG_for 1.32) and high last5 BTTS (80%). Danubio concedes relatively often seasonally (seasonConcededAVG 1.75, xG_against 1.77), and Cerro Largo’s recent home ga_l5_home 8 increases chances of both scoring. Although Cerro Largo’s season CS% is 50%, recent results reduce that edge; league BTTS 45% is moderate. Overall, signals favor BTTS = Yes with moderate confidence.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and alternating-statistics analysis shows clear offensive edge for Cerro Largo (xG 1.46, high shot efficiency) versus weaker Danubio attack (xG 0.98) and vulnerable defence (conceded avg 1.77). Expected goals from offensive and defensive xG give 1.62 for home and 0.97 for away, total ~2.59. Seasonal metrics show high Over 1.5 rates for both (~75%), while 2.5 is more balanced (~50–60%). Given stronger home attack, SOT advantage and higher Over1.5 rates, the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Over 2.5 risk is moderate; Over 3.5 unlikely due to league averages and Danubio defensive data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Cerro Largo have a clear statistical edge: higher goals average (2.0 vs 0.75), better xG (1.46 vs 0.98) and stronger home offensive metrics. Both teams often draw at HT; the hosts have 75% HT draws and a high HT CS share, indicating a higher probability of a draw after 45 minutes. Cerro Largo regularly improve in the second half (ppg_2hg_home 2.0, 2H wins 50%) and score most between minutes 46–75. Danubio have lower xG, weaker defense and poor second-half results, so a turnaround by the hosts after the break is more likely. On this basis the strongest signal is HT draw and Cerro Largo win FT (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cerro Largo | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Danubio is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Cerro Largo · 1.38 goals / match - Danubio
Danubio is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Cerro Largo · 1.25 goals / match - Danubio
Cerro Largo scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while Danubio keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
Danubio scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Cerro Largo keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cerro Largo
Over / Under - Danubio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Danubio is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Cerro Largo · 1.38 pts / match - Danubio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cerro Largo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Danubio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cerro Largo
Danubio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Cerro Largo | Liga | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.38 | 2.34 | ▲ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 30% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 66% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 76% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Cerro Largo 1 - 1 - 0 Danubio. Average goals 0.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cerro Largo vs Danubio?
The Primera División match finished Cerro Largo 2:0 Danubio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro Largo and Danubio?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 1, Danubio won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 0.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Cerro Largo vs Danubio?
Cerro Largo score 1.00 goals per game on average and Danubio 1.38. The Primera División average is 2.34 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Cerro Largo's matches and 50% of Danubio's.
What form are Cerro Largo and Danubio in?
Over the last 5 games Cerro Largo have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Danubio 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cerro Largo vs Danubio?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Cerro Largo vs Danubio: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.