Cerro Porteño vs Sportivo San Lorenzo: match statistics

Cerro Porteño have a clear home advantage: they win 54% of their home matches, score an average of 1.46 goals and concede just 0.62. Sportivo San Lorenzo lose as many as 69% of their away games, score only 0.62 goals per match, and concede an average of 2 goals. The hosts create more chances, averaging 14.38 shots and an xG of 1.50, compared with 10.62 shots and an xG of 1.17 for the visitors. Cerro Porteño keep a clean sheet in 54% of their home matches, while San Lorenzo have failed to score in 46% of their away games and have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of matches. Although the hosts have won just 2 of their last 5 matches, the visitors have scored only 2 goals over the same period and suffered 3 defeats, making a Cerro Porteño victory the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - Yes pick is not supported by the very low scoring averages: Cerro Porteño score an average of 0.54 goals, while Sportivo San Lorenzo average 0.62. The home side have failed to score in 54% of their matches this season, compared with 46% for the visitors, so the risk that at least one team will finish the match without scoring is significant. In their last five matches, San Lorenzo have scored just 2 goals, or 0.4 per game, with an xG of only 0.90. Cerro Porteño have been more defensively stable recently, conceding an average of 1.0 goals and allowing opponents an xG of 1.06, which further limits the scoring chances of the low-scoring visitors. The teams' season BTTS figures—31% for Cerro Porteño and 46% for San Lorenzo—also remain below the league average of 52%.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5, as only 15% of Cerro Porteño’s matches and 23% of Sportivo San Lorenzo’s games went over the 3.5-goal line. Both teams also have very limited high-scoring potential: over the course of the season, they average just 0.54 and 0.62 goals per match respectively, and neither has scored more than two goals in a single game with any significant regularity. Sportivo San Lorenzo have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 0.90, while Cerro Porteño have allowed opponents an average xG of 1.06 during this period. The hosts are in better attacking form, averaging 1.4 goals and an xG of 1.61 across their last five appearances, but even against a weak away defence conceding an average of 1.4 goals, the projected total stands at a moderate 2.40 goals. Additionally, 85% of Cerro’s matches and 77% of San Lorenzo’s games have ended with a maximum of three goals, clearly supporting the lower outcome on the 3.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Cerro Porteño were level after 45 minutes in 62% of their matches, compared with 46% for Sportivo San Lorenzo. The hosts score just 0.08 goals per match before the break and have not led at half-time on any occasion, which limits the likelihood of a scenario in which they are ahead at the interval. After the break, the advantage should shift to Cerro: they average 0.46 goals in the second half, while San Lorenzo score only 0.15 and lose this period in 69% of matches. Current form also supports the home side, who have averaged 1.4 goals across their last five appearances compared with 0.4 for the visitors, while winning 40% of those matches against Sportivo’s 20%. San Lorenzo’s weak defence, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per match and 1.23 after half-time, increases the likelihood of a result in Cerro’s favour only during the latter stages of the game.