Cerro vs Juventud: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates an evenly matched encounter between two weak teams in poor form. Cerro has not won any home matches this season (0% win rate), scoring only 0.5 goals per game, although they maintain a balanced xG (1.16 vs 1.13). Juventud has also not won away (0% Win%), conceding an average of 2.67 goals, but they display better offensive efficiency (1.33 goals/game) and never finish matches without scoring (0% FTS%). Both teams have a negative goal difference and poor form in their last five matches (0.4 and 0.8 PPG). Considering Cerro's high draw rate at home (50%) and the overall weakness of both sides, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome of this match.
Cerro vs Juventud: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cerro played Juventud in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 25 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Cerro: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Juventud: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cerro scores 0.43 and concedes 1.57 goals per match. Juventud scores 1.00 and concedes 1.71. League average: 2.33 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cerro 43%, Juventud 57%. Over 2.5: Cerro 29%, Juventud 57%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Juventud has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.20. Cerro: 10.6 shots per match, Juventud: 10.6.
Match halves
Cerro: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.14. Juventud: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Cerro: 0-15 (1 goals). Juventud: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.33 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates an evenly matched encounter between two weak teams in poor form. Cerro has not won any home matches this season (0% win rate), scoring only 0.5 goals per game, although they maintain a balanced xG (1.16 vs 1.13). Juventud has also not won away (0% Win%), conceding an average of 2.67 goals, but they display better offensive efficiency (1.33 goals/game) and never finish matches without scoring (0% FTS%). Both teams have a negative goal difference and poor form in their last five matches (0.4 and 0.8 PPG). Considering Cerro's high draw rate at home (50%) and the overall weakness of both sides, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome of this match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Juventud has a very strong BTTS profile: a 100% BTTS rate this season, 0% clean sheets, and a high average of goals conceded (2.67) with an xG against of 1.56, which favors a Cerro goal. On the other hand, Cerro does not keep clean sheets (0% CS) and concedes an average of 1.0 goals, so Juventud, with a scoring rate of 1.33 goals per match and an xG for of 1.12, has a realistic chance of scoring. Although Cerro has a low average goals scored (0.75) and a high percentage of failed-to-score matches (75% FTS), its creative parameters are good (xG for 1.71 and 6.25 shots on target), which, against the opponent's weak defense, increases the likelihood of breaking through. The last 5 matches support the BTTS scenario (Cerro 60%, Juventud 80%) with concurrently elevated average goals conceded (1.4 and 1.8). Compared to the league average (46% BTTS), this match has above-average potential for both teams to score, despite the risk stemming from Cerro's inefficiency.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The goal model based on xG and seasonal averages indicates approximately 2.78 goals per match (1.66 Cerro vs 1.12 Juventud). The key factor is Juventud's very poor defense: 2.67 goals conceded per match and an xG against of 1.56, with 0% clean sheets for both sides. Cerro generates high xG for (1.71) and many shots on target (6.25 SOT), which increases the probability of at least two goals despite a low conversion rate (6%) and frequent failure to score (FTS 75%). Juventud in league matches has a 100% over 1.5 and 100% over 2.5 record, which supports the scenario of a high-scoring game. The strongest and most stable signal is the over 1.5 line, because even with the risk of Cerro's inefficiency, the defensive weakness of the visitors and their scoring ability (1.33 goals/match) favor surpassing this threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal for a 1/1 outcome stems from Juventud's very weak defense: conceding 2.67 goals on average away from home and 1.33 goals conceded by halftime. Cerro generates significantly better chance quality (xG for 1.71 vs 1.12) and more shots on target (6.25 vs 3.33), which should translate into a lead already in the first half. Additionally, Juventud often trails at the break (67% of matches), reinforcing the scenario of the hosts leading at HT. At the FT level, Cerro has better PPG (0.75 vs 0.33) and, given the opponent's high concession rate, is favored to maintain the advantage. The risk for a clean 1/1 is that both teams have 0% clean sheets this season and Juventud has a 100% BTTS rate, hence significant probability has been allocated to comeback/turnaround variants.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cerro | Juventud | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 24% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Juventud is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Cerro · 0.6 pts / match - Juventud
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Juventud is 133% better for: goals scored per match.
0.43 goals / match - Cerro · 1 goals / match - Juventud
Cerro is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.57 goals / match - Cerro · 1.71 goals / match - Juventud
Cerro scores in 43% of matches (3 of 7 matches), while Juventud keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
Juventud scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cerro
Over / Under - Juventud
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Juventud is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.71 pts / match - Cerro · 1 pts / match - Juventud
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cerro - second-half results
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Juventud - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cerro
Juventud
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Cerro | Liga | Juventud | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.33 | ▲ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 47% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 47% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 30% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 43% | 67% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 75% | ▼ 57% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Cerro 1 - 0 - 1 Juventud. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cerro vs Juventud?
The Primera División match finished Cerro 1:0 Juventud. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Juventud?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Cerro won 1, Juventud won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Cerro vs Juventud?
Cerro score 0.43 goals per game on average and Juventud 1.00. The Primera División average is 2.33 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Cerro's matches and 57% of Juventud's.
What form are Cerro and Juventud in?
Over the last 5 games Cerro have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Juventud 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cerro vs Juventud?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.