Ceuta vs Cádiz: match statistics

Ceuta displays significantly better home form with a 67% win rate at home and an impressive goal difference of +6 at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.53 goals per game at home with a 12% conversion rate and hold a possession advantage (52% vs 42%). Cádiz wins only 27% of their away matches, fails to score in 40% of games, and has a negative goal difference of -3. The recent form over the last five matches also favors Ceuta (1.2 points per game vs 0.6 for Cádiz). xG analysis confirms the home side's superiority (1.49 vs 0.96), suggesting greater offensive efficiency from the Ceuta side. Considering all statistics, Ceuta should capitalize on their home advantage and secure all three points.

Seasonal data indicates a moderately low BTTS probability: Ceuta has a 44% BTTS rate, while Cádiz is at 47%, both below the league average (54%). The key factor is the away team's offensive profile: Cádiz has a high share of matches without a goal (FTS 40%) and in their last 5 matches averaged only 0.6 goals per game (3 goals), with a BTTS rate of just 20% over this period. Ceuta should have a solid chance to score, as Cádiz has a low clean sheet rate (CS 27%) and a high xG against (1.68), increasing the likelihood of a home goal. On the other hand, despite Ceuta conceding heavily in their last 5 matches (2.6 goals/game) and having an elevated xG against (1.83), Cádiz's scoring form remains limited. Overall, the scenario where one side (more often Cádiz) fails to score is more probable.

The goal-scoring model based on xG indicates a moderately offensive match: Ceuta averages 1.39 xG per game, while Cádiz concedes as much as 1.68 xG, boosting the projection for the hosts. On the other hand, Cádiz generates only 0.96 xG, but Ceuta allows 1.51 xG, so the visitors have a realistic chance to score, yet without a strong signal for a very high goal count. Seasonal trends support caution for high lines: Over 3.5 is only 19–20%, while Under 3.5 is as high as 80–81% in both teams' profiles. In the last 5 matches, Ceuta has played more 'over' (80% Over 2.5) mainly due to high goals conceded (2.6 GA), but Cádiz remains less goal-oriented (40% Over 2.5, 0.6 GF). Therefore, the best value is Under 3.5, as it combines an elevated goal expectation (approx. 2.65) with a historically low frequency of 4+ goal outcomes.

The strongest signal for half-time is a draw: Cádiz very frequently draws at HT (53%), and Ceuta also regularly goes into the break level (38%), with low first-half goal production (scoredAVGHT 0.5 vs 0.4) and high clean sheet percentages at HT (56% vs 53%). In the second half, Ceuta's creative advantage increases, as they have a higher xG for (1.39 vs 0.96) and a greater shot volume (12.25 vs 8.33; SOT 3.69 vs 2.8), while Cádiz concedes a lot of quality chances (xG against 1.68). Recent form from the last 5 matches also favors the hosts: Ceuta has a higher PPG (1.2 vs 0.6), and Cádiz has lost 80% of its matches. At the same time, Ceuta's defense has been unstable in recent games (2.6 goals conceded per match), which boosts the variants with a draw in FT, but the balance of quality chances still slightly tilts the match in the hosts' favor. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Ceuta victory after 90 minutes (X/1).