Ceuta vs Real Valladolid: match statistics
Ceuta presents impressive home form with a 70% win rate and a +6 goal difference, providing a solid basis for predicting their victory. The hosts have recorded four wins in their last five home matches, confirming their dominance on their own turf. Real Valladolid struggles in away matches, winning only 30% of encounters, with a Failed To Score rate of 50%, meaning they finish every second match without a goal. The visitors have a negative away goal difference (-4) and poor form in their last five matches (0.8 PPG). xG statistics also favor Ceuta (1.43 vs 1.35), and average possession is comparable, suggesting a close game; however, home advantage and the hosts' superior efficiency tip the scales in their favor. Considering all factors, Ceuta has a real chance of securing three points, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the balanced quality of both teams.
Ceuta vs Real Valladolid: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ceuta played Real Valladolid in Segunda División (Spain). The match was played on 17 January 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Ceuta: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Real Valladolid: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ceuta scores 1.19 and concedes 1.24 goals per match. Real Valladolid scores 1.00 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ceuta 52%, Real Valladolid 43%. Over 2.5: Ceuta 48%, Real Valladolid 33%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Real Valladolid has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.22. Ceuta: 10.3 shots per match, Real Valladolid: 14.5.
Match halves
Ceuta: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.57. Real Valladolid: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Ceuta: 0-15 (6 goals). Real Valladolid: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Segunda División: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ceuta presents impressive home form with a 70% win rate and a +6 goal difference, providing a solid basis for predicting their victory. The hosts have recorded four wins in their last five home matches, confirming their dominance on their own turf. Real Valladolid struggles in away matches, winning only 30% of encounters, with a Failed To Score rate of 50%, meaning they finish every second match without a goal. The visitors have a negative away goal difference (-4) and poor form in their last five matches (0.8 PPG). xG statistics also favor Ceuta (1.43 vs 1.35), and average possession is comparable, suggesting a close game; however, home advantage and the hosts' superior efficiency tip the scales in their favor. Considering all factors, Ceuta has a real chance of securing three points, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the balanced quality of both teams.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ceuta | Real Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ceuta is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Ceuta · 0.8 pts / match - Real Valladolid
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ceuta is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - Ceuta · 1 goals / match - Real Valladolid
Real Valladolid is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.24 goals / match - Ceuta · 1.1 goals / match - Real Valladolid
Ceuta scores in 76% of matches (16 of 21 matches), while Real Valladolid keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 matches).
Real Valladolid scores in 57% of matches (12 of 21 matches), while Ceuta keeps a clean sheet in 33% (7 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ceuta
Over / Under - Real Valladolid
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ceuta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Real Valladolid - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ceuta
Real Valladolid
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Segunda División).
Teams vs league
| Ceuta | Liga | Real Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.43 | 2.55 | ▼ 2.10 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 56% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 49% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 27% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 66% | • 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 52% | 75% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ceuta 0 - 0 - 1 Real Valladolid. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?
The Segunda División match finished Ceuta 0:3 Real Valladolid. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?
Ceuta score 1.19 goals per game on average and Real Valladolid 1.00. The Segunda División average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Ceuta's matches and 43% of Real Valladolid's.
What form are Ceuta and Real Valladolid in?
Over the last 5 games Ceuta have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Real Valladolid 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.