CF Os Belenenses vs Atlético CP: match statistics

CF Os Belenenses are top of the table and have won all 4 matches played so far, while their last five fixtures produced a perfect record of 5 victories and a 14:3 goal difference. At home, the hosts average 3 goals, create chances worth 2.02 xG and have yet to concede, whereas Atlético CP generate just 1.10 xG away from home. Belenenses also hold a clear advantage in terms of game control: averaging 56% possession, 16.5 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with the visitors’ 43%, 8 shots and 3.5 shots on target. Atlético remain unbeaten, have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are highly clinical, but allow opponents chances worth 1.60 xG away from home. The defensive solidity of both teams increases the likelihood of a tight opening, but Belenenses’ superior chance creation quality points to a home win.

CF Os Belenenses have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches so far, while the figure stands at 60% in their last five games; Atlético CP record 0% and 40%, respectively. The hosts are highly effective offensively, averaging 2.0 goals per game this season and 2.8 in their last five matches, with a high xG of 2.15 during that period. Atlético also score regularly, averaging 2.0 goals per game this season and 2.4 in their last five fixtures, although their xG of 1.38 is clearly lower than the hosts'. The main argument against BTTS - Yes is the visitors' excellent defense: they have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches this season and concede an average of just 0.4 goals in their last five outings. Nevertheless, Belenenses average 7.5 shots on target per match, and both teams are on a run of five wins or four wins and a draw, so a goal from each side is slightly more likely.

Both teams are in highly attacking form: Belenenses have averaged 2.8 goals in their last five matches, while Atlético have averaged 2.4. However, the hosts create significantly more chances, with an xG of 1.67 compared with the opponents’ 1.10, as well as averaging 7.5 shots on target per game versus Atlético’s 3.5. At the same time, both defenses have been effective, with Belenenses conceding just 0.6 goals per match over their last five fixtures and Atlético 0.4. Atlético have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches so far, and none of their away games has gone over the 3.5-goal line. Belenenses’ attacking potential should be enough to produce at least two goals in the match, but the combination of solid defenses and a projected total of 2.55 goals gives the strongest edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is CF Os Belenenses leading at the break and winning after the final whistle, as the hosts have won all of their last five matches, while Atlético recorded four wins and a draw during the same period. Belenenses held a half-time lead in four of their last five games, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded in the first half. The hosts also create more chances: their average xG stands at 1.67 compared with the opponents’ 1.10, while they average 7.5 shots on target per match against Atlético’s 3.5. After the break, Belenenses have averaged 1.6 goals across their last five matches, whereas Atlético won the second half in only 20% of those games. The visitors remain dangerous, having led at half-time in three of their last five matches, which is why draw or Atlético half-time lead scenarios have also been given significant consideration.