CF Os Belenenses vs Caldas: match statistics

CF Os Belenenses have been in better recent form: they have collected 8 points from their previous five matches, recording 2 wins and 2 draws, while Caldas have earned 5 points. The hosts scored 6 goals and conceded just 4 during this period, giving them a positive goal difference of +2; Caldas scored 5 but allowed their opponents to find the net 7 times. Particularly noteworthy is Belenenses’ more solid defensive record, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per match across their last five outings, compared with 1.4 for the visitors. Although Caldas sit 2nd and Belenenses 4th, the visitors’ current run includes 2 defeats in five matches. The form advantage and superior goal difference point towards a narrow home win, albeit with a relatively high draw risk.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by recent form: BTTS occurred in 60% of Belenenses’ last five matches and in as many as 80% of Caldas’ games. During this period, Belenenses scored an average of 1.2 goals with a high xG of 2.00, while Caldas conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match, supporting the case for a home goal. The visitors scored an average of 1.0 goals, while their attacking potential is further supported by the fact that Belenenses allowed opponents an average xG of 1.33 per match. The risk to BTTS - Yes is the hosts’ stronger defence: they conceded just 4 goals in five matches, or 0.8 per game. Therefore, the advantage remains moderate for the “Yes” scenario rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

Data from the last five matches indicates a moderately goal-heavy profile: Belenenses matches produced an average of 2.0 goals, while Caldas matches averaged 2.4 goals. Belenenses scored 6 goals and conceded 4 during this period, whereas Caldas scored 5 and allowed 7 goals, which supports the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. The hosts averaged 2.00 xG per game, clearly more than Caldas’ 1.00 xG, while the visitors’ defense allowed 1.24 xG. The 2.5 line remains more uncertain, as only 40% of the last five matches for each team ended with three or more goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected 2.40 goals and the high scoring frequency of both teams give this side a clear advantage.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CF Os Belenenses victory at full-time (X/1), as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 75% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Caldas. First halves are usually cautious: Belenenses averaged 0.5 goals scored and just 0.25 conceded, keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of their matches. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases, as they average 1.0 goal, while Caldas score just 0.4 and lose the second half in 60% of cases. Overall form across the last five matches also favors the hosts: they averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, compared with 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded by Caldas. Belenenses’ higher points return over this period—1.6 points per match versus 1.0 for their opponents—supports the HT/FT scenario in which the match is decided after the break.