Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán: match statistics

Chacarita Juniors have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 55% of such matches, concede just 0.73 goals on average, and keep a clean sheet in 45% of games. San Martín Tucumán win only 25% of their away fixtures, score 0.67 goals per match, and fail to score in 42% of games. The hosts create slightly fewer high-quality chances according to xG (1.03 versus 1.23), but Chacarita’s defense restricts opponents to just 0.81 xG, while the visitors allow 1.24 xG. Both teams are in poor current form, with Chacarita collecting 4 points from their last five matches and San Martín just 3, but home advantage and the hosts’ more solid defense favor Chacarita. The low scoring output of both sides points to a tight, low-scoring victory for Chacarita Juniors.

The BTTS - No pick is supported by the league’s low-scoring profile, with an average of just 1.94 goals per match, while both teams record BTTS less frequently than the league-wide 40%: Chacarita 46% and San Martín 33%. The visitors score only 0.67 goals per game on average and have failed to score in 42% of their matches, which is a key risk to the both-teams-to-score scenario. Chacarita have a solid defence, conceding an average of 0.77 goals, keeping a clean sheet in 46% of matches, and allowing opponents an xG of 0.87. San Martín’s last five matches did produce BTTS in 80% of cases, but their average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded does not offset their weak season-long attacking numbers. The hosts have also been inefficient recently, scoring just 0.6 goals per match over their last five fixtures, so it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

San Martín Tucumán scores just 0.67 goals per game this season, while Chacarita Juniors concedes only 0.77 at home, clearly limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. The hosts average 1.23 goals, but their opponents’ defence allows just 1.00 goal on average, keeping Chacarita’s projected total at a moderate 1.17 goals. As many as 92% of San Martín’s matches finished Under 2.5 goals, while 100% stayed Under 3.5 goals; for Chacarita, these figures stand at 62% and 85%, respectively. Recent form also points away from an open, high-scoring game, with Chacarita scoring just 3 goals across five matches and the combined expected goal total reaching only 1.90. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as this selection only loses if at least four goals are scored—something the profile of both teams clearly does not support.

A half-time draw is strongly supported by the data: Chacarita were level at the break in 54% of their matches, compared with 42% for San Martín, while both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of their last five games. The first halves have been very cagey, with the hosts averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.31 conceded, while the visitors score just 0.42 goals per match before half-time. Chacarita have the stronger season-long figures, scoring 1.23 goals and conceding 0.77, whereas San Martín score only 0.67 goals per game. However, the hosts’ current form is weaker, with just 0.6 goals scored per match across their last five outings. The visitors drew 60% of their last five matches and failed to win any of them, limiting the likelihood of a second-half victory. The most logical scenario therefore remains a cautious X/X, although following a goalless or level first half, the hosts also have a realistic chance of turning the match in their favour.