Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding: match statistics

Changchun Yatai have won 58% of their home matches, while Yanbian Longding have lost 42% of their away games, giving the hosts a clear home advantage. Changchun average 1.75 goals and 4.58 shots on target per match at home, compared with 1.33 goals and 2.83 shots on target for Yanbian away. The gap in the quality of chances created is reflected in the xG figures: 1.33 for Changchun versus just 0.91 for Yanbian, who have failed to score in 42% of their away matches. Recent form also favours the hosts: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, while the visitors have managed only 3, losing 4 times and conceding 11 goals. However, Yanbian cannot be ruled out, as Changchun have conceded 40 goals this season and allow opponents to score an average of 1.5 goals per match at home.

The scenario in which both teams score has a slight edge: this occurred in 67% of Changchun Yatai’s matches and 42% of Yanbian Longding’s, compared with a league average of 55%. The hosts have solid grounds to find the net, with an average xG of 1.38, while the visitors have recently conceded 2.2 goals per match. Yanbian scoring is less certain — the team failed to score in 42% of its matches, and its average xG is 0.91, compared with the 1.12 xG conceded by the hosts. However, the case for BTTS - Yes is supported by Yanbian’s season average of 1.33 goals per match and the fact that both teams scored in 4 of its last 5 matches. These conflicting signals justify only a slight lean towards BTTS - Yes, rather than a strong pick.

At least 4 goals have been scored in 25% of matches involving either team, making Under 3.5 goals the option best supported by the data. Changchun average 1.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Yanbian average 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded—pointing more towards a total of 2–3 goals than a high-scoring game. The hosts create chances worth an average xG of 1.38, compared with 0.91 for the visitors, who also record fewer shots on target: 2.83 versus 4.33. The main risk to this pick is Yanbian’s defensive form: they have conceded an average of 2.2 goals across their last 5 matches. However, Changchun have scored just 0.8 goals per game over the same period. The projected total of 2.55 goals gives Under 3.5 a slight edge over the other options considered.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Changchun Yatai did not score before half-time in any of those games. After the interval, the advantage shifts to the hosts: they average 0.92 goals in the second half, while Yanbian Longding concede 0.83. Changchun also have a higher average xG, 1.38 compared with 0.91, and record more shots on target per match, 4.33 compared with 2.83. The visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of 2.2 goals, which strengthens the case for the hosts to break the deadlock after the break. Therefore, the strongest HT/FT pick is a draw at half-time and a Changchun Yatai win at full-time.