Chapecoense vs Botafogo: match statistics

Botafogo appears to be the favorite, having scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches and holding a 3-2-0 record in that period, which translates to 2.2 points per game. Chapecoense scored only 1 goal in the same span, failed to win any of the last 5 matches and averages just 0.4 points per game, while conceding 9 goals in those five matches. Home advantage favors the hosts with a higher volume of chances and superior xG at home — on average 16.33 shots per game and xG 1.6 versus 9.67 shots and xG 1.1 for Botafogo away — but lower conversion rate (9% vs 16% for the visitors) means Chapecoense are less efficient at turning chances into goals. Both teams are, however, vulnerable defensively: the hosts concede 1.83 goals at home on average, and Botafogo concede 2.33 on the road, so I expect an open game with goals at both ends. Considering form, finishing efficiency and recent runs, I tip a win for the visitors and assign 60% probability to Botafogo, 25% to a draw and 15% to a Chapecoense victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS comes from Botafogo: seasonal BTTS rate is 83% and 100% in the last 5 matches, with no clean sheets (0%), which strongly suggests Botafogo games regularly see both teams score. Chapecoense at home has a seasonal scoring average of 2.25 goals per match, but only 0.2 goals on average in the last 5 matches, which lowers their likelihood of forcing BTTS on their own; Chapecoense’s seasonal BTTS is 50%. Both sides concede goals easily: Botafogo concedes 2.33 goals on average this season, Chapecoense 1.75, and in the last 5 matches they conceded 8 and 9 goals respectively, which increases the probability of goals from both sides. Offensive metrics and xG also support BTTS — latest xG for Botafogo is 1.73 versus 1.45 for Chapecoense, shots on target 4.17 vs 4.75 and conversion rates 16% vs 18%, while matches over 2.5 goals occur in 83% (Botafogo) and 100% (Chapecoense) of cases. Considering this, I back BTTS - Yes at approximately 80% versus 20% for No, because signals of regular scoring and conceding by both teams dominate.

The model combining xG and seasonal averages yields expected goals of 1.84 for Chapecoense and 1.50 for Botafogo, totaling 3.34 goals. In xG terms: Chapecoense has xG_for 1.39, Botafogo xG_against 1.69 → about 1.54 goals for the home side; Botafogo xG_for 1.10 and Chapecoense xG_against 1.74 → about 1.42 for the visitors. Seasonal figures reinforce the over forecast: Chapecoense scores an average of 2.25 goals at home, Botafogo 1.50 away (3.75 combined) and 100% of Chapecoense’s home matches and 83% of Botafogo’s away matches have finished Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, Botafogo has scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches, and BTTS rates are 50% (home) and 83% (away), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides; meanwhile Over 3.5 is mixed (75% for the home side vs 33% for the away). Considering the expected 3.34 goals and the dominant 100%/83% figures for Over 2.5, I recommend betting Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.

Form analysis clearly favors Botafogo over 90 minutes: in the last 5 matches the visitors have a 60% win rate and average 2.2 goals and 2.2 points per game, while Chapecoense in those five matches has a 0% win rate, averaging 0.2 goals and 0.4 points per game. At Half-Time a draw is more likely than a home lead — Chapecoense led at the break in 0% of their last 5 matches and averaged 0.0 goals by Half-Time, whereas Botafogo led at the break in 40% and averages 0.8 goals by Half-Time. Second-half stats indicate decisive goals may come after the break: Chapecoense scores an average of 1.75 second-half goals at home, and Botafogo concedes an average of 1.5 second-half goals as visitors. Although seasonal xG slightly favors the home side (xG 1.39 vs 1.10), Botafogo’s high form and goal output (2.2 vs 0.2 in the last 5) and the fact that 83% of Botafogo’s away matches finish with both teams scoring point toward an HT/FT scenario of draw at Half-Time and a visitor turnaround to win after 90 minutes.