Chapecoense vs Flamengo: match statistics

Flamengo are the favorites: they sit 2nd in the table with 10 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses this season, while Chapecoense are 20th with just 1 win, 6 draws and 11 losses. In the last 5 matches Flamengo average 2.0 points per game (3W-1D-1L), whereas Chapecoense only 0.6 points per game with a 1W-4L record. Defensively the visitors have a clear edge: Flamengo concede 1.00 goal on the road on average and keep 33% clean sheets, while Chapecoense concede 2.22 at home and have only 11% clean sheets; over the season Chapecoense have conceded 35 goals versus 16 conceded by Flamengo. Offensively Chapecoense attempt more shots at home (16.0 shots, 4.56 on target) and have an xG of 1.60, while Flamengo away register 12.67 shots (4.33 on target) with xG 1.40, but Chapecoense’s lower conversion (9% vs 13%) and weaker defense diminish the value of their chance-creation advantage. On that basis I give the highest probability to a Flamengo victory.

I assess BTTS (Both Teams To Score) as more likely: 65% vs 35% for No BTTS. Primary case: Flamengo’s form — in the last 5 matches they have xG_for 1.97 and scored 8 goals (1.6 per game), and seasonally they have 31 goals and 1.67 goals per game, which increases the likelihood of the away side scoring. Chapecoense have conceded on average 1.6 goals in their last five matches and have a recent xG_against of 1.84, indicating defensive vulnerability, despite a seasonal clean sheet rate of 50%. Both teams create chances — Chapecoense 17.25 shots per game with a 12% conversion (seasonal average 2.0 goals), Flamengo 12.67 shots and 13% conversion — so realistically both sides have a real chance to score. Additionally, the league average BTTS is 57%, with seasonal BTTS at 38% (Chapecoense) vs 56% (Flamengo); combining form and xG, I favor the "Both Teams To Score" scenario.

Total expected goals from xG are 1.63 for Chapecoense (xG_for 1.90 with opponent xG_against 1.36) and 1.36 for Flamengo (xG_for 1.40 with home xG_against 1.31), giving a combined total of 2.99 goals. Season stats show Chapecoense have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and Flamengo 89%, so Over 1.5 is almost certain — I assess it at ~96%. The 2.5 line has solid support: season Over 2.5 is 63% for the home side and 67% for the visitors, with the league average at 50% — against the expected 2.99 goals I assign Over 2.5 at about 68%. Additionally, the home team average 17.25 shots (5.5 on target) with 12% conversion, and Flamengo 12.67 shots (4.33 on target) with 13% conversion, which supports an expectation of at least 3 goals. Over 3.5 is unlikely (season Over 3.5: 25% and 11%), therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over on the 2.5 line.

Statistical analysis indicates Chapecoense's advantage in the first half and overall: the hosts led at the break in 63% of their matches (5 times), and their average xG per match is 1.90 versus Flamengo's 1.40. Combined with a higher average of shots (17.25 vs 12.67) and shots on target (5.5 vs 4.33), this suggests Chapecoense creates more scoring opportunities. Additionally, Chapecoense concedes only 0.25 goals on average by half-time compared to 0.44 for Flamengo and has a better points return at home (2.13 pts/match) than Flamengo away (1.89), supporting the likelihood they will maintain a lead at half-time. However, Flamengo’s better form in the last 5 matches (60% wins vs the hosts’ 20%) and greater number of first-half goals this season (13 vs 7) introduce a real risk of a turnaround. High first-half goal rates (over 0.5: 88% for the hosts and 78% for the visitors) confirm a goal in the first half is very likely, but the hosts’ offensive and defensive metrics signal a stronger likelihood of taking and keeping the lead. Therefore the most probable scenario is 1/1 (hosts lead at half-time and win Full-Time), although draw and away-win scenarios remain meaningful secondary risks.