Chapecoense vs Internacional: match statistics

Chapecoense are in clearly better current form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, thanks to 2 wins and a draw, while Internacional have not won any of those games and have managed just 2 points. The hosts have scored 8 goals during this period, 3 more than their opponents, who have found the net only 5 times. Internacional are slightly more defensively stable away from home, conceding an average of 1.50 goals compared with Chapecoense’s 2.25 at home, but both teams keep a clean sheet in only 17% of such matches. Chapecoense create slightly more high-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.52 compared with Internacional’s 1.48, and also register more shots on target: 4.25 to 3.75 per match. With draws and wins accounting for an equally high 42% in these conditions, the advantage in current form and home-field advantage slightly favour the hosts.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately strong: BTTS occurred in 57% of Chapecoense matches and 58% of Internacional games, exactly matching the league average of 57%. In Chapecoense’s last five outings, both teams scored in as many as 80% of matches, while Internacional saw this scenario in 60%, with each team conceding an average of 1.8 goals. Chapecoense creates plenty of chances at home, averaging 1.78 xG and 5.07 shots on target per match, while Internacional has 1.48 xG and concedes an average of 1.50 goals per game. The visitors are less reliable in attack, however, failing to score in 33% of matches. Their latest xG of 1.82 against a Chapecoense defence allowing 1.80 xG nevertheless supports the prospect of an Internacional goal. BTTS - Yes therefore remains the most likely outcome, although the main risk comes from Internacional’s inconsistent finishing, having scored only 5 goals in their last five matches.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 71% of Chapecoense matches and 75% of Internacional’s games. The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, while the visitors’ matches averaged 2.8 goals; both teams conceded 1.8 goals per game over this period. Chapecoense create chances worth an average of 1.78 xG at home, while Internacional allow opponents 1.46 xG away from home, which supports at least one goal for the hosts. The visitors average 1.48 xG in attack, while Chapecoense’s defense allows opponents 1.15 xG, making an Internacional response a realistic possibility as well. The 2.5 line is more balanced despite the high-scoring recent form, as Under 2.5 goals landed in 64% of Chapecoense matches and 58% of Internacional’s games across the entire season.

Chapecoense have a clearly stronger first-half profile: they were leading at the break in 43% of their matches, compared with just 8% for Internacional, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in as many as 50% of games. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 1.78 xG versus their opponents’ 1.48, and registering 5.07 shots on target per match compared with Internacional’s 3.75. The visitors’ defence allows an average of 1.46 xG, while Chapecoense concede just 1.14 goals per home game, strengthening the case for the lead to be maintained. Current form also favours the hosts: they have won 2 of their last 5 matches, whereas Internacional have failed to win any and have lost 3. The most likely scenario is therefore Chapecoense leading at half-time and winning after the final whistle, although Internacional’s high 42% away draw rate limits confidence in the pick.