Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph: match statistics

Charlotte Independence are exceptionally strong at home: they have won 89% of their matches, average 2.67 goals per game, and have never failed to score in a home fixture. Greenville Triumph score just 0.50 goals away from home, fail to find the net in 75% of matches, and lose 75% of their games, which significantly limits their chances of earning points. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 17 shots and 6.44 shots on target per game, compared with 10.88 and 3.38 respectively for the visitors. Although Charlotte have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, Greenville’s attack has scored just 7 goals during the same period, with the team recording only 1 win. The difference in league position—Charlotte in 2nd place compared with Greenville in 13th—as well as the hosts’ home record, strongly point to a comfortable home victory.

The signal for both sides to score is strengthened by their current form: Charlotte and Greenville recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% and 60% of their respective last five matches. During this period, the home side scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 2.2, while the visitors scored 1.4 goals and conceded 2.2. Greenville produced an average of 2.14 xG in their last five matches, clearly higher than the 1.96 xG recently allowed by Charlotte, improving the visitors’ chances of breaking out of their poor season-long scoring record. The risk to the pick is Greenville’s season average of just 0.5 goals scored and the fact that they failed to score in 75% of their matches; however, Charlotte have kept a clean sheet in only 22% of games. The home side should also find the net, as they average 1.78 goals per match and 5.67 shots on target, while facing a visitors’ defence conceding 1.75 goals per game.

Charlotte averages 1.78 goals per match, while Greenville concedes 1.75, with the hosts having already scored 10 goals in their last five fixtures. Both teams’ defenses are currently clearly vulnerable: Charlotte has conceded 2.2 goals per match across its last five appearances, identical to Greenville, which has allowed 11 goals in that span. Within the same sample, Charlotte’s matches ended with at least three goals in 100% of cases, compared with 80% for Greenville, strongly supporting a scenario with a minimum of two goals. Although Greenville averages just 0.50 goals per match over the season, its recent xG stands at 2.14, while Charlotte allows an average of 1.96 xG in its last five matches. The strongest selection is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have season-long hit rates for this line of 78% and 75%, respectively, while their current defensive form further increases the goal-scoring potential.

Charlotte Independence have a clear attacking advantage, averaging 1.78 goals per match with an xG of 1.76, while Greenville concede an average of 1.75 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts average 1.13 goals before the break compared with just 0.13 for the visitors; Greenville have also failed to score before half-time in 88% of their matches. Charlotte led at the break in 38% of their games and in 50% of their last five, whereas Greenville have not led at half-time in any of their last five matches and were trailing at the break in 50% of them. The hosts have won 44% of their matches this season, compared with just 13% away wins and as many as 75% losses for the visitors. Therefore, the most likely scenario remains Charlotte leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through to full-time: 1/1.