Charlotte vs Toronto: match statistics
Charlotte vs Toronto: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Charlotte played Toronto in MLS (United States). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Charlotte: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Toronto: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Charlotte scores 1.54 and concedes 1.69 goals per match. Toronto scores 1.67 and concedes 2.00. League average: 3.28 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Charlotte 69%, Toronto 83%. Over 2.5: Charlotte 69%, Toronto 67%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Toronto has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.29. Charlotte: 10.5 shots per match, Toronto: 11.8.
Match halves
Charlotte: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 1.15. Toronto: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 1.42.
Goals by minute
Charlotte: 76-90+ (6 goals). Toronto: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.28 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (’1’) because Charlotte averages 2.00 goals scored and concedes 1.14 at home, while Toronto on the road scores 1.00 and concedes 2.00. The hosts create more chances: 12.14 average shots and 5.57 shots on target per match with a conversion rate of 16%, versus Toronto’s 9.33 shots, 4.00 on target and 11% conversion. xG also favors Charlotte — average xG For 1.46 against 1.13 for the visitors, and xG Against 1.23 for the home side versus 1.31 for Toronto, indicating the hosts generate slightly better high-quality chances. Both teams are in poor form: Charlotte has 0 wins and 0.2 points per game in the last five matches (4 scored, 10 conceded), while Toronto has 0 wins and 0.4 points per game in that period (8 scored, 13 conceded). Additionally, Charlotte has a positive home goal difference (+6) and a 43% home win rate versus Toronto’s 33% away win rate, so I assign a 55% probability to the home victory, 25% to a draw and 20% to the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes comes from Charlotte, which has 100% home matches with both teams scoring this season and 0% clean sheets, while Toronto has 33% BTTS away and 33% clean sheets; this points to an advantage for the "both teams to score" scenario in this matchup. Both teams concede on average 2.0 goals per game (Charlotte 2.0, Toronto 2.0) and the league has 60% BTTS matches, which further increases the likelihood that both sides will find the net. Charlotte produces 1.48 xG at home and scores on average 1.89 goals with 12.67 shots (5.0 on target) and 15% conversion, while Toronto has 1.13 xG and 1.0 goals with 9.33 shots (4.0 on target) and 11% conversion, so the hosts have the offensive edge but the visitors can create chances. In the last 5 matches Toronto has 100% BTTS and scored 8 goals (1.6 avg), while Charlotte has 40% BTTS and 4 goals (0.8 avg), meaning the visitors have been scoring regularly recently. Considering Charlotte's 100% home BTTS, both teams' average 2.0 goals conceded and the league 60% BTTS rate, I assess the probability of the "yes" scenario at around 70%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate total expected goals at around 3.02 (expected_goals_home 1.67 vs expected_goals_away 1.35), derived from xG: Charlotte 1.48 vs Toronto 1.13 and seasonal goals averages: Charlotte 1.89 at home, Toronto 1.00 away. With a total of 3.02 the Poisson distribution gives roughly an 80% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~58% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~36% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5), which aligns with seasonal over shares: Over1.5 is 100% for Charlotte and 67% for Toronto, while Over2.5 is 67% for both. Additionally, Charlotte averages 12.67 shots and 5.0 on target per match, Toronto 9.33 and 4.0, and both teams show a high incidence of goal-scoring matches (Charlotte BTTS 100%, Toronto BTTS in the last 5 matches 100%), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (over) — highest confidence (~80%) and multiple statistical supports favor this side.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A halftime draw is the most common outcome in Charlotte’s matches — occurring in 44% of games — and the average first-half goals for the home side is only 0.22 versus 0.33 for Toronto, indicating low first-half intensity. Charlotte strongly accelerates after the break: they scored 3 goals in 46–60', 4 goals in 61–75' and as many as 8 goals in 76–90' (15 second-half goals in total), while Toronto has only 2 goals after the break (0+1+1). Additionally, the hosts have a higher xG of 1.48 compared to 1.13 and an average goals per match of 1.89 versus the opponent’s 1.00, which increases Charlotte’s chances of a turnaround after halftime. Therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time market of draw at the break and Charlotte to win (X/1): matches are often level at the break (44%), and the hosts score the vast majority of goals after the restart (15 versus 2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Charlotte | Toronto | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toronto is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Charlotte · 0.6 pts / match - Toronto
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toronto is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.54 goals / match - Charlotte · 1.67 goals / match - Toronto
Charlotte is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.69 goals / match - Charlotte · 2 goals / match - Toronto
Charlotte scores in 69% of matches (9 of 13 matches), while Toronto keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 12 matches).
Toronto scores in 92% of matches (11 of 12 matches), while Charlotte keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Charlotte
Over / Under - Toronto
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Charlotte is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - Charlotte · 0.67 pts / match - Toronto
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Charlotte - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Toronto - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 3.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Charlotte
Toronto
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Charlotte | Liga | Toronto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.23 | 3.28 | ▲ 3.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 59% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 8% | 23% | ▼ 8% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Charlotte vs Toronto?
The MLS match finished Charlotte 3:1 Toronto. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Charlotte vs Toronto?
Charlotte score 1.54 goals per game on average and Toronto 1.67. The MLS average is 3.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Charlotte's matches and 83% of Toronto's.
What form are Charlotte and Toronto in?
Over the last 5 games Charlotte have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Toronto 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Charlotte vs Toronto?
The statistical background for Charlotte vs Toronto — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.